River Flood Warning 56, NWS Topeka, KS

345 
WGUS83 KTOP 272346
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
546 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-280745-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0056.181227T2345Z-181231T1912Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181229T1200Z.181231T0712Z.NO/
546 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  5:15 PM Thursday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.2 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Monday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

002 
WGUS83 KTOP 281244
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-282043-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181231T0600Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181229T1200Z.181230T1800Z.NO/
644 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  6:15 AM Friday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.2 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  early afternoon.
* Impacts...Minor lowland flooding occurs from Marysville to 
  Tuttle Creek Lake. 

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

987 
WGUS83 KTOP 281936
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
135 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-290335-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181231T1704Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181230T0600Z.181231T0504Z.NO/
135 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until Monday morning.
* At  1:00 PM Friday the stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.0 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impacts...Minor lowland flooding occurs from Marysville to 
  Tuttle Creek Lake. 

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

349 
WGUS83 KTOP 290119
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
719 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-290919-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181231T1704Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181230T0000Z.181231T0504Z.NO/
719 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until Monday morning.
* At  4:45 PM Friday the stage was 27.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 29.5 feet by 
  Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

820 
WGUS83 KTOP 291014
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
414 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-291813-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181231T1500Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181228T2215Z.181231T0300Z.NO/
414 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until Monday morning.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 27.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday before midnight.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs from 
  Marysville to Tuttle Creek Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

675 
WGUS83 KTOP 291750
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-300149-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181230T1600Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181228T2215Z.181230T0400Z.NO/
1150 AM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until Sunday morning.
* At 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 26.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall below flood stage 
  before midnight on Sunday.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs from 
  Marysville to Tuttle Creek Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

473 
WGUS83 KTOP 300033
FLSTOP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following streams in 
Kansas...

  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-300103-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-181230T1600Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.181227T2241Z.181228T2215Z.181229T2042Z.NO/
633 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* At  6:00 PM Saturday the stage was 25.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 21.7 feet by Monday 
  morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Early this morning the closed mid-level low was centered over the
TX/OK panhandles with strong southerly mid-level flow on the lee-
side of the trough continuing to advect abundant moisture northward
into the central U.S.  With this mid-level low tracking
northeastward across western KS, the dry slot was working into the
forecast area, resulting in diminishing coverage of precipitation
early this morning.  Short-range models show precipitation
continuing to scatter out as a result of this overspreading dry slot
through mid-morning before the surface cold front starts progressing
eastward across the forecast area.  As this cold front tracks
eastward this morning into this afternoon, models continue to show
enough remaining lift and moisture to support some scattered
precipitation along and behind the front.  Some weak instability of
up to around 200 J/kg may help to produce a few thunderstorms with
this frontal passage mid morning into early afternoon, and cannot
rule out the potential for some gusty winds with any storms that
develop.  Winds were quite gusty early this morning as a 60-70kt LLJ
tracked over the area, resulting in some recorded gusts up to around
45 kts.  While winds should diminish some through the day, there is
still enough of a pressure gradient to result in 25-30 mph wind
gusts through this afternoon.  Models continue to show strong CAA
streaming into the area behind the cold front, which will result in
a non-diurnal temperature trend as readings plunge through the day.
With the front already in north central KS early this morning,
expect temperatures to steadily fall through the daytime hours in
that area.  Overcast skies across eastern KS ahead of the front will
likely keep temperatures steady in the low/mid 50s before dropping
behind the frontal passage.  With short-range models showing
temperatures plunging into the low/mid 30s by mid/late morning
across north central KS, there is the concern for some wintry
precipitation on the back-side of this exiting low. Of greater
concern is the fact that some model soundings show the mid-level
drying out in the dendritic growth zone as temperatures fall
near/below freezing, resulting in the concern for some freezing
rain/drizzle. While precipitation by that time should be becoming
more scattered in coverage before completely drying out, there still
is the potential for some light ice accumulations across north
central to far northeast KS. If enough saturation is able to stay
into the dendritic growth zone with the back edge of this scattered
precipitation, then some light snow will also be possible across
north central KS.

By tonight, surface high pressure will dive southward into the
Central Plains, resulting in continued CAA through the overnight
hours.  Despite some lingering low clouds, expect strong enough CAA
to cause overnight low temperatures to plunge into the upper teens
to low/mid 20s, with Friday morning wind chill values in the single
digits to low teens.

Otherwise, with the widespread rainfall amounts of 1-1.5+ inches
across the outlook area yesterday, this will result in some rises of
rivers and streams today through this weekend, with some minor river
flooding possible (primarily across portions of north central KS).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Transitioning into the extended period, more "winter-like"
temperatures are expected through much of the next 7 days...

The slow-progressing mid-level low/shortwave trough will continue to
move into the Upper Midwest through the day Friday, shunting all
precipitation well north of the area. Strong CAA is expected to
remain across the CWA with northwesterly winds 10-15 MPH, gusting 20-
25 MPH. Wind chill values Friday morning are likely to range from 5-
15. High temperatures Friday afternoon will only reach the middle
20s to lower 30s.

By Saturday an elongated, strongly-sheared mid-level trough axis
will overspread the much of the Central and Southern Plains. Meager
moisture combined with weak ascent should allow for dry conditions
to prevail. Another cold morning is expected Saturday as low
temperatures reach the low to middle teens. A northerly breeze
around 5-8 MPH will result in wind chill values ranging from 0 to
10.

A brief temperature moderation is expected Sunday as WAA overspreads
eastern KS, ahead of a northern stream shortwave trough that will
traverse the region Monday. Highs Sunday afternoon will reach the
lower 40s. The aforementioned shortwave trough will shunt an
attendant surface trough through the area New Year's Eve-Monday.
High temperatures are likely to occur in the morning hours with
falling temperatures through the day. There is the potential for
light snow during the evening hours of New Year's Eve with the
shortwave passage. Additionally, bitterly cold temperatures are
likely to ring in the new-year. Temperatures at midnight Monday
night/Tuesday morning are expected to be in the teens and lower 20s.
A northwest breeze of 10-20 MPH will result in wind chill values in
the single digits. By sunrise New Year's Day, wind chill values will
likely be below zero for many. Below normal temperatures with dry
conditions are likely thereafter through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

For the 12z TAFs, borderline MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail through
the daytime hours as a cold front tracks eastward over the TAFs.
Some scattered showers possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms
will be possible along and behind this frontal passage, however
confidence in the timing and coverage of any of these showers is
too low to warrant a prevailing precip group at this time. Winds
will remain breezy through the entire TAF period, with gusts of at
least 20-30kts as winds shift from south to northwest. There is
model uncertainty regarding whether or not cigs will improve to
low-end VFR overnight or if some MVFR stratus will linger, so will
have to monitor this in future TAF updates.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
415 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-281015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
415 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this morning through this afternoon as a cold front
tracks eastward across the outlook area. Severe weather is not
expected, but cannot rule out some gusty winds from any
thunderstorms that develop. As temperatures plunge to near and
below freezing behind the frontal passage, there is the potential
for some light wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain
or snow mid morning into this afternoon across north central to
far northeast Kansas. As a result, light ice or snow
accumulations will be possible which may cause some slick road
conditions.

With widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches from yesterday,
some rises in rivers and streams are expected with some minor
river flooding possible, primarily across portions of north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Due to the recent rainfall, some rises in rivers and streams are
expected with some minor river flooding possible into the weekend,
primarily across portions of north central and northeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep