Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Topeka, KS

388 
WGUS73 KTOP 030501
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1201 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

KSC117-149-161-030930-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180903T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Riley-Pottawatomie-Marshall-
1201 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Around 1.0 to 2.5 inches of rain 
have fallen. These rainfall amounts are capable of producing flash 
flooding.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Blaine, Riley, Frankfort, Leonardville, Olsburg, Randolph and Tuttle
Creek Lake.

Additional rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 9628 3966 9629 3939 9647 3921 9676
      3925 9687 3948 9691 3957 9665 3971 9650
      3982 9647

$$

Cohen

484 
WGUS73 KTOP 030720
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
220 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

KSC117-149-161-030930-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180903T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Riley-Pottawatomie-Marshall-
220 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 216 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen. 
Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Blaine, Riley, Frankfort, Leonardville, Olsburg, Randolph and Tuttle
Creek Lake.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the 
warned area. Some locally higher rainfall amounts are possible!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 9628 3966 9629 3939 9647 3921 9676
      3925 9687 3948 9691 3957 9665 3971 9650
      3982 9647

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave across west central KS with
another wave moving toward KS out of eastern NM. 850mb VWP network
shows rather uniform SSE flow of 15-20 kts at this time across the
region with the 850mb front across central NE. Sfc map shows a low
across southwest KS with a diffuse boundary extending ENE into
northern KS. Vis satellite imagery also shows what appears to be
an elevated boundary that extends south into north TX. this
boundary is acting as a focus for convection at the moment from
near TOP south toward ICT.

For tonight...main concern is excessive rains and potential
flooding. Expect convection to develop across west/central KS near
RSL/Hays toward SLN through early evening. Effective shear of
35-45 kts may allow for early discrete cell/supercell
characteristics however hodographs become messy in the mid-levels
so evolution into multicell clusters appears likely or short line
segments as the evening wears on. Main severe risk would appear to
be downburst winds through the evening with some hail risk across
the western counties. Poor mid-level lapse rates should temper
any greater hail risk however. Tornado threat is non zero but
appears to be limited to areas across our far west/sw counties for
a time late this afternoon or early evening but even this appears
conditional on storm evolution.

Greater concern is flooding given overall mesoscale and synoptic
set up. PWATs approaching 2" combined with a modest but present
25-35kt LLJ and a source of MUCAPE of 1-2k overnight will exist in
region of upper divergence in right entrance region of upper jet.
Evolution of convection into a cluster or line appears likely and
storm motion/corfidi vectors suggest ENE movement however thetae
ridge will remain anchored across central KS so backbuilding
appears likely too so could see training. HREF ensemble precip
matched mean clusters max precip across central KS where amounts
in excess of 3" appears likely. Much uncertainly still exist
however in the exact placement of the cluster overnight especially
in how far south and east any of the heaviest rains could fall.
At the moment we do not anticipate major changes to the flood
watch area for tonight but those near the flood watch area
including the Topeka area need to stay aware of trends tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, The very wet pattern will continue through
the week with chances for t-storms and locally heavy rains
forecast to persist through Friday and perhaps into Saturday.
Another wave will move across the area Monday night into Tues with
more heavy rains and by Weds the 850mb front will drop into the
area which will serve as a focus for heavy rains into late week.
The atmosphere will remain very moist with PWATS well above climo
avg likely around 2".

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Cluster of t-storms now developing across central Kansas will
eventually organize and move east across the area overnight.
Expect that at least MHK will be impacted by periods of IFR conds
in the storms. Confidence is higher at MHK than TOP/FOE on timing
so will continue with more detail at MHK. A weak boundary has also
moved into in between TOP and FOE causing winds at TOP to become
ENE. Feeling is that if addition storms develop winds may remain
ENE however if no storms develop in the area winds will become SE
again similar to FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-
034>036.

&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
335 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight. A few
of the storms may be severe with damaging winds the main hazard
in the late afternoon and evening hours. An isolated tornado may
also be possible early this evening as would a low risk for large
hail but this risk appears to be limited to areas west of a
Junction City to Marysville line early this evening.

The greater concern is widespread heavy rainfall overnight across
central and parts of northeast Kansas where a Flash Flood Watch
is posted. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible.
This may cause flash flooding so remember don't drive through
flooded roads!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible during the day. An active weather pattern
brings continued chances for thunderstorms through much of the
upcoming week so the risk for flooding could persist through the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through sunset mainly west of a
Junction City to Marysville line. Rainfall reports are also
encouraged overnight and especially Monday morning.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
925 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ009-010-021-022-030315-
Clay-Riley-Washington-Marshall-
925 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 925 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Barnes to 4 miles east of
Green. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waterville and Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 9670 3948 9667 3947 9668 3948 9668
      3947 9669 3942 9700 3963 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 240DEG 17KT 3964 9694 3944 9692

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
926 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW MARYSVILLE        39.90N 96.67W
09/02/2018                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 77 NORTH HAD UP TO A FOOT OF WATER
            CROSSING THE ROAD. WATER IS CURRENTLY
            RECEDING. THERE ARE REPORTS OF MULTIPLE
            STREETS FLOODED IN MARYSVILLE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N CULVER              39.02N 97.76W
09/02/2018                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY AT INTERSECTION OF K-18
            AND 90TH ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E ADA                 39.15N 97.82W
09/02/2018                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY AT INTERSECTION OF
            MULBERRY ROAD AND 60TH ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1013 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S MARYSVILLE          39.79N 96.65W
09/02/2018                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 77 NEAR OSAGE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER. ESTIMATED 10-12 INCHES RUNNING
            ACROSS THE ROAD. A WATER RESCUE OCCURRED ON
            HIGHWAY 77.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1032 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE MARYSVILLE         39.85N 96.63W
09/02/2018  M4.21 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   AWOS

            RAINFALL TODAY AS OF 10:15 PM.

&&