Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
717 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

Early this morning, ongoing showers and storms continue to
overspread the area with the heaviest precipitation over east
central Kansas and far northeast Kansas. Some training of storms
around Nemaha, Brown, and northern Jackson County brought 2+
inches and have opted to add these counties into the Flood Watch
as heavy rain may occur again in that area with the northward
lifting surface boundary.  The aforementioned boundary is progged to
lift north into north central Kansas by late morning, orientated
relatively north-northeast to south-southwest. This will act to
refocus precipitation back into north central Kansas this
afternoon and evening. Modest destabilization this afternoon will
allow for at least somewhat of a threat for some strong to severe
storms to form. While lapse rates are lacking, adequate deep layer
shear will allow for a threat of mainly strong winds. With the
boundary in place and 0-1km shear near 20 knots, a spin up is also
not out of the question. Southerly 850mb winds will continue to
advect a large swath of moisture into the area making heavy rains
and flooding a concern again for today through Tuesday night.
Another 1-3 inches will be possible through the day and overnight
tonight in north central Kansas. With persistent cloud cover and
warm air advection today, there will be a gradient of high
temperatures in the upper 60s in north central Kansas to the low
80s in east central Kansas.

For tonight, the surface front is slow to progress eastward
keeping prolonged rains over north central Kansas before finally
making a push east Tuesday afternoon. The NAM is the most robust
with QPF tonight while some CAMS back off on precipition slightly
after midnight. Multiple rivers and creeks are forecast to flood
in this area tonight based on rainfall totals so this will be
something to watch with rainfall today and tonight. Cloud cover
will moderate low temperatures tonight with lows only in the 50s
behind the front, and in the upper 60s ahead of it.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

A deep mid-level, open wave trough will be located across the Four
Corners region of the Central Great Basin by Tuesday morning. A
surface front extending from the Great Lakes region down into
western Texas will be located across central Kansas during this
time.  Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the
morning hours in north central Kansas, eventually shifting eastward
as the front progresses through the afternoon and evening hours.
PWATs between 1.5 to 2 inches will allow for more heavy rainfall
across an already nearly saturated northeast Kansas.  The heaviest
rainfall is expected with the morning activity in north central
Kansas.  Afternoon activity will primarily be located east of a
Washington to Junction City line with storms oriented north to south
as the front progresses across the area. QPF amounts look to be
around an inch or less with this final push of the front.  With the
heaviest rainfall Monday and Tuesday morning west of this activity
Tuesday afternoon, have opted to continue to keep parts of eastern
Kansas and east central Kansas out of the Flood Watch. As for storms
Tuesday afternoon and evening, sufficient instability and deep shear
of 35-40 knots may allow for some stronger storms to form with
damaging winds being the main hazard, although low level shear does
 indicate there could be rotating updrafts. High pressure
centered over the northern Plains noses into the area Wednesday
and Thursday with clearing skies and dry conditions expected.
Temperatures will drop behind the front with highs these days in
the upper 50s and low 60s.

Models struggle in the extended period with the ingestion of a
tropical system near the Baja Peninsula into the mean flow. Kept
some PoPs for the ladder half of the week into the weekend, but
confidence in precipitation is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 717 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

MVFR to IFR cigs give way to vfr cigs when heavier rains move over
the terminals. Expect this trend to continue with the shra and
tsra. VSBYS vary from vfr to mvfr to ifr. Expect an improvement to
vfr for both cigs and vsbys at TOP and FOE after 18Z and at MHK
near 21Z. Line of convection moves toward MHK after 23Z and added
vcts for now. LLWS forecast at TOP and FOE after 05Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034>038-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-090900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur across much of the area this
morning through tonight. Locally heavy rains will occur in some
areas as the storms are expected to move over the same areas
repeatedly. This could cause localized flooding.

This afternoon, there is also a small chance that a few storms
could produce strong to severe gusty winds into early this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
occur through tomorrow night. Areas of heavy rainfall are
expected across much of north central and central Kansas, causing
an increasing threat of flooding.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible during
the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday mainly east of a Seneca
to Manhattan to Junction City line. While there is still some
uncertainty regarding the potential for severe weather, a risk for
damaging wind gusts may accompany the most intense storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW DUNLAP             38.53N 96.42W
10/08/2018  M3.20 INCH       MORRIS             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STORM TOTAL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
            MORNING.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1006 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OLPE                    38.26N 96.17W
10/08/2018  M2.40 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STORM TOTAL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
            MORNING.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1115 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE WESTPHALIA        38.21N 95.41W
10/08/2018                   ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1122 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E GARNETT             38.28N 95.17W
10/08/2018                   ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 1750 ROAD
            BETWEEN OSAGE AND TEXAS.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1132 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE HARRIS            38.26N 95.39W
10/08/2018                   ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 1600 ROAD AND
            INDIANA.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MARYSVILLE              39.84N 96.65W
10/08/2018  M3.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL AMOUNT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
            MONDAY MORNING.

&&

ST