Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Great Falls, MT

August 20, 2018Beaverhead County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 20, 2018, 3:53 PM MDT for Beaverhead County, Montana. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 20, 2018, 3:53 PM MDT (21:53 UTC)
Expired
Aug 20, 2018, 4:30 PM MDT
In force
37 min
Issued by
NWS Great Falls, MT
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

County Beaverhead County, MT

The radar

The Pocatello radar (KSFX), 226 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 313 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2018-08-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2018-08-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -31 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1430 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 20, 2:32 PM MDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 2:32 PM MDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
232 PM MDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight and into the mid morning hours on Tuesday across Central
and Southwest Montana. A few storms across Southwest Montana may
become strong and produce damaging wind gusts. Temperatures will
begin to warm through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon through Wednesday...An elongated,
positive- tilt trough will reside over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies through Tuesday. At the surface, a cool Canadian
airmass will continue to push southward with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through tonight. A few
thunderstorms could become severe over southwest Montana this
afternoon through this evening with the primary threat being
damaging wind gusts. The upper trough weakens and sinks southward
overnight with shower and thunderstorm activity affecting
primarily southwest Montana tonight and Tuesday. Temperatures are
expected to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday as atmospheric thickness
values increase as the upper trough weakens and cuts off over far
southwest Montana and Idaho. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will
likely linger over the southwest zones into Wednesday due to the
upper low continuing to spin and destabilize the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, surface low pressure develops in Alberta with
increasing southerly winds expected across north central Montana.
mpj

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range models finally
weaken the upper level cutoff low and eject it eastward with
shortwave ridging expected over the state on Thursday. Expecting
continued warm, mostly dry, and breezy to windy conditions to
prevail Thursday and Friday. This could bring a return to borderline
critical fire weather condition late in the week, a possibility we
will continue to monitor. Models also continue to suggest that a
broad upper level trough will develop over western Canada for the
weekend and into early next week with west to southwest flow aloft
expected over Montana. Main medium-range models appear to be closing
the gap with a fair amount of moisture streaming through a southwest
flow aloft. Have therefore increased PoPs/QPF beginning Sunday.
Britton

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1740Z.

Widespread smoke will keep visibility over much of the area in the
high MVFR to low VFR range throughout much of the period. Increased
mid level moisture associated with a Pacific weather system will
continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area this morning, but slowly diminishing from
the northwest this afternoon. Low pressure aloft moves southward
during the period with showers becoming more widespread in southwest
Montana. VFR conditions expected to prevail but areas of smoke,
showers, and low clouds will generate periods of IFR/MVFR conditions
with mountains obscured through the forecast period. britton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  72  47  85 /  40   0   0   0
CTB  41  73  46  85 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  46  72  49  84 /  90  20  10  10
BZN  45  67  44  81 /  80  30  10  10
WEY  30  67  30  73 /  50  20  20  30
DLN  44  68  43  77 /  90  30  10  20
HVR  46  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  44  65  44  80 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 2:03 PM MDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 20, 3:08 PM MDT, 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
308 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2018

MTZ008-202200-
Beaverhead MT-
308 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEAVERHEAD COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 308 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leadore, or 37 miles southeast of Salmon, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Beaverhead County.

LAT...LON 4487 11346 4500 11307 4473 11291 4470 11310
      4477 11313 4482 11326 4479 11335 4483 11336
      4484 11342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 252DEG 16KT 4477 11337

NJL
Special weather statement, Aug 20, 3:39 PM MDT, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
339 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2018

MTZ008-015-202230-
Madison MT-Beaverhead MT-
339 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 338 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Leadore, or 30 miles southwest of Dillon, moving
east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dillon, Grant, Beaverhead Rock State Park and Clark Canyon.

LAT...LON 4470 11304 4498 11318 4526 11254 4478 11222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 254DEG 33KT 4485 11299

NJL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 19, 7:27 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXJefferson33 min
Aug 20, 2:03 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBeaverhead42 min
Aug 20, 3:08 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBeaverhead52 min
Aug 20, 3:39 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBeaverhead51 min
Aug 20, 4:24 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBeaverhead51 min
Aug 20, 5:10 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXMadison50 min
Aug 20, 5:40 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBeaverhead50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.