Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Great Falls, MT

302 
WWUS55 KTFX 050144
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
744 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTC013-045-050200-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180605T0200Z/
Judith Basin MT-Cascade MT-
744 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTIES...

At 744 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles southwest
of Geyser, or 24 miles west of Stanford, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sluice Boxes State Park, Monarch and Raynesford. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4701 11087 4725 11095 4735 11062 4737 11056
      4705 11045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 248DEG 45KT 4718 11073 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

072 
WWUS55 KTFX 050159
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
759 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTC013-045-050209-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180605T0200Z/
Judith Basin MT-Cascade MT-
759 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN AND
EAST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4701 11087 4725 11095 4735 11062 4737 11056
      4705 11045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 261DEG 52KT 4721 11049 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
340 PM MDT Mon Jun 4 2018

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific cool front will move eastward through the region tonight,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be
strong this evening. For Tuesday and Wednesday, weak upper level
disturbance will move through Southwest and Central MT, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could also
be strong. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees above normal for
Tue and Wed, with a very warm day expected on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An active convective week is expected for our forecast area this
week with several opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms.
This will likely be followed by a strong cold front this weekend.

The severe weather threat still looks on track for this
afternoon/evening. Water vapor imagery shows lift/moisture
increasing across Idaho associated with an incoming mid/upper jet.
It is still expected that this will provide the necessary lift for
thunderstorm initiation this afternoon. The best combination of
shear/instability still looks to be focused from Lincoln/Helena east
to Lewistown and about as far south as I-90. Gusty/damaging winds
will be the primary threat, but large hail will be possible with any
sustained/rotating updraft. The hail threat is a bit more
conditional due to higher freezing levels and uncertainties
regarding instability. Otherwise, cloud bases look to be fairly high
and locally, the threat of tornadoes appears very low. The 19z TFX
sounding shows a well mixed boundary layer and lower instability
which is likely more indicative of the environment from Great Falls
north.

Today's cold front will settle into SW MT on Tuesday, with a focused
area of moisture/convergence leading to another round of
showers/storms across SW MT, possibly as far north as Great
Falls/Lewistown. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday,
but the threat looks lower compared to today (unless greater
instability can develop).

Regarding the rest of the week, multiple upper level waves will
traverse the area bringing additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the area, some of which could be strong to severe.
At this point, the greatest risk of severe weather may end up being
Thursday, but stay tuned for future updates regarding this
potential. By the weekend, the models have been consistently showing
a seasonally strong cold front passing through the area. This would
likely be proceeded by a round of thunderstorms, then followed by
breezy and much cooler conditions. - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2140Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from southwest to
northeast through the region this evening. Some storms could be
strong. Expect some clearing towards 12z, but another round of
showers/thunderstorms is possible on Tue afternoon over Southwest
and Central MT. Overall VFR conditions will prevail, but short
periods of IFR conditions are possible in/near storms. Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood warning has been cancelled Missouri River near Toston, as it
has gone below flood stage.

Flood Warning continues for the Jefferson River near Three Forks
where moderate flooding continues. This flood warning could continue
for another few days.

Flood Warning continues for the Big Hole River near Melrose where
minor flooding continues. This flood warning could continue for
another few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  75  47  78 /  50  30   0  10
CTB  40  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  51  79  48  79 /  40  30   0  10
BZN  49  78  47  77 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  41  72  38  72 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  46  74  44  75 /  20  20   0  20
HVR  49  77  47  80 /  30  20   0   0
LWT  51  68  47  74 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood highlights continue until further notice.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
642 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTZ050-050115-
Judith Basin MT-
642 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM MDT...

At 641 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southwest of Stanford, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail, occasional lightning and winds in excess of 40 mph
will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Windham and Benchland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4686 11047 4701 11063 4729 11020 4707 10997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 226DEG 21KT 4699 11049

Brusda

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
657 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 SW MALMSTROM AFB      47.49N 111.22W
06/04/2018  E0.25 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            GREAT FALLS.

&&

BRUSDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
707 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTZ047-051-050200-
Fergus-Blaine-
707 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FERGUS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTIES...

At 707 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Winifred, or 40
miles north of Lewistown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winifred.

This includes Highway 191 between mile markers 82 and 87.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4747 10939 4776 10952 4792 10890 4790 10888
      4774 10890 4771 10882 4765 10877 4764 10872
      4762 10868 4763 10861 4758 10856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 243DEG 34KT 4764 10931

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
710 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTZ013-050-051-050145-
Chouteau-Fergus-Judith Basin-
710 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN...
NORTHWESTERN FERGUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES...

At 709 PM MDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was centered near
Stanford, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Stanford, Denton, Hobson, Moore, Windham, Moccasin, Ackley
Lake State Park, Glengarry, Utica, Danvers, Coffee Creek, Heath and
Benchland.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 200 between mile markers 32 and 90.
 Highway 191 between mile markers 1 and 10.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4692 11022 4728 11036 4765 10982 4700 10919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 230DEG 42KT 4716 11009

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
717 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

MTZ012-050-054-050145-
Cascade-Judith Basin-Meagher-
717 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MEAGHER...WEST
CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE COUNTIES...

At 716 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 22 miles southeast
of Cascade, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sluice Boxes State Park, Monarch and Raynesford.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 200 between mile markers 1 and 12.
 Highway 89 between mile markers 45 and 70.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4699 11136 4714 11145 4740 11076 4704 11057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 254DEG 48KT 4703 11139

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
721 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             8 N STANFORD            47.27N 110.20W
06/04/2018  E0.88 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORT.

&&

BRUSDA