Tornado Warning 19, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

705 
WWUS52 KTBW 091446
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
946 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

FLC053-101-091454-
/O.CAN.KTBW.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-181209T1500Z/
Pasco FL-Hernando FL-
946 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PASCO AND SOUTHEASTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds 
and torrential rainfall are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Ruskin.

LAT...LON 2829 8245 2842 8248 2856 8220 2836 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 247DEG 26KT 2840 8231 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
645 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

.AVIATION...
09/12Z TAF cycle. Robust LN SHRA/low CIGS/ISOLD TSRA pushing into
northern terminals with MVFR/LCL IFR conditions spreading
southward during the morning along with TSRA gusts. Greatest
impacts will be in a 14-19z window mainly from SRQ northward. LN
is expected to weaken some when approaching terminals south of
SRQ in the afternoon. VFR begins to return 20-02Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 338 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today - Monday)...
An upper level shortwave trough swinging through the southeastern US
today is providing the forcing for a surface low crossing northern
Florida and dragging a cold front through the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and into the Florida Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms
along and ahead of this front is quickly approaching the forecast
area, and is on track to quickly push southeast through the area
during the morning through early evening hours. Strong wind shear
ahead of the front will allow for the possibility of a few strong or
severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes
the primary threat. Breezy winds both ahead of and behind the front
will also lead to a high risk of rip currents along area beaches
today, with the threat continuing through the day on Monday.

As the front pushes into the Florida Straits tonight, breezy
northwest winds behind the front will lead to a sustained period of
cold air advection. Lows Monday morning will be noticeably cooler,
ranging from the mid 40s to low 60s. The breezy winds will continue
throughout the day Monday, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s over
the Nature Coast and in the 60s over the rest of West Central and
Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM (Monday Night - Saturday)...
Monday night and Tuesday, a second shortwave trough aloft will dig
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, providing a
reinforcing push of cold air into the area as cold air advection
continues. Lows Tuesday morning will drop into the mid to upper 30s
north of Interstate 4, and generally in the 40s and low 50s to the
south. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach into the 60s in some
areas, and will only top out in the mid 60s over southwest Florida.
As high pressure fills into Florida from the northwest Tuesday night
and Wednesday, wind speeds and cold air advection will start to
subside. However, clear skies will allow temperatures to drop a
couple more degrees by Wednesday morning, and a brief freeze cannot
be ruled out in a few spots over the interior Nature Coast counties.

As broad surface high pressure settles in north of the area during
the second half of the week, temperatures will quickly moderate,
getting back to near normal by Thursday and Friday afternoon. A
strong upper/mid level trough will swing through the Mississippi
River Valley on Friday, sending the next cold front into Florida by
late Friday. This will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Friday night, but will only cause
temperatures to drop a few degrees by Saturday.

MARINE...
A cold front will move southeast through the coastal waters today,
producing breezy winds and periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Southerly winds ahead of the front are already increasing to advisory
levels over the Gulf waters from Englewood to Suwannee River, with
cautionary winds elsewhere. Winds will turn to the northwest and
remain around 20 knots behind the front tonight before subsiding on
Monday as high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico. As
the high pressure shifts east, a tight pressure gradient will let
winds increase again slightly on Tuesday, producing exercise caution
conditions. High pressure will hold north of the waters Wednesday and
Thursday, with east winds generally around 15 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns, as relative humidity will remain well above critical
levels through the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  56  63  47 /  80  20  20  10
FMY  77  62  69  49 /  70  20  10  10
GIF  76  55  65  43 /  80  20   0   0
SRQ  74  59  65  49 /  80  20  10  10
BKV  74  50  61  39 /  80  20  10  10
SPG  74  58  62  50 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

AVIATION...09/Rude
PREVIOUS...18/Fleming
 MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
915 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

FLZ050-149-151-249-251-091515-
Inland Pasco FL-Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-
Inland Hillsborough FL-Coastal Pasco FL-
915 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PASCO...PINELLAS AND NORTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EST...

At 915 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Land O Lakes to Citrus
Park to 10 miles southwest of Harbor Bluffs. Movement was east at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Pinellas Park, Plant City, Temple Terrace,
Seminole, New Port Richey, Zephyrhills, Dade City, Downtown Saint
Petersburg, Lutz, Holiday, Brandon, St. Petersburg, St. Leo, Palm
Harbor, New Port Richey East, Zephyrhills South and Tampa
International Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2805 8289 2815 8276 2843 8262 2843 8208
      2826 8208 2826 8211 2817 8211 2817 8207
      2807 8207 2776 8261 2776 8285 2786 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 272DEG 20KT 2829 8256 2808 8257 2784 8298

TBW