Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

309 
WWUS52 KTBW 022049
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
449 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

FLC105-022058-
/O.CAN.KTBW.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-181102T2100Z/
Polk FL-
449 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 2764 8114 2765 8203 2809 8179 2836 8185
      2835 8166 2826 8166 2826 8156 2814 8152
      2814 8146 2809 8145 2808 8135 2801 8138
      2806 8145 2804 8146 2800 8142 2800 8139
      2792 8131 2786 8131 2783 8122 2766 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 268DEG 40KT 2835 8165 2811 8157 2769 8173 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
315 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf
coast early this afternoon rotates up into New England by Sat
afternoon. An accompanying cold front currently over and southwest
of the FL Panhandle slides across the state this afternoon and
evening and stalls across south FL for Sat. High pressure behind the
front moves into much of the Gulf and southeast U.S. Sat.

Abundant moisture and energy ahead of and right along the front will
support showers and thunderstorms...ongoing over the Nature Coast
and around Tampa Bay early this afternoon. These showers and storms
shift across the rest of the central and southwest counties during
the afternoon and exit into south FL this evening. While the bulk of
the energy stays north of the area there will still be enough for
some strong to possibility severe storms from around the Tampa Bay
area northward. High pressure in the wake of the front shifts low
level flow to northwest then northeast by late Sat...with a dry and
somewhat cooler airmass spreading across the area.

For Sun through next week: Broad troughing aloft resides across
roughly the eastern half of the nation...maintained by a series of
of short wave troughs rotating into the central plains and exiting
across the Great Lakes to eastern Canada. Surface high pressure
stretching down the eastern seaboard to the Gulf of Mexico Sat night
pulls away to the northeast as the stalled south FL front lifts
north over the state during Sun. High pressure builds in across FL
and the Gulf from the Atlantic for Mon-Wed. This high pressure
slides east as a front is propelled into the Gulf on Thu...stalling
across FL Fri. There will be adequate moisture for isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures run on the
warm side of normal although there may be slight dip by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAF cycle. Cold front with showers and thunderstorms
continues approaching but it has slowed slightly with the convection
becoming a bit more scattered. However - anticipate lowering CIGS
and MVFR TSRA with gusty winds at all terminals...generally in a 20Z
to 24Z window with VCSH into the evening and MVFR CIGS for most of
the night. Clearing late night and through the morning. Southerly
winds...robust at times...shift to N and NNE with diminishing speeds
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front pushing across the waters will provide some robust winds
and thunderstorms with higher gusts into this evening. High
pressure builds in tonight and Sat with some exercise caution
headlines offshore tonight and early Sat. Winds begin to diminish
and veer during Sat as the high pressure weakens and pulls away
with the front moving back north Sun, High pressure builds in
from the Atlantic for early in the week with benign winds and
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry air works in Sat but the minimum humidity remains above
critical levels. After that moisture returns with no RH concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  61  76  64  83 /  60   0  10  60
FMY  69  80  69  85 /  50   0  10  60
GIF  61  75  64  84 /  60   0  10  70
SRQ  64  78  67  83 /  60   0  10  60
BKV  56  73  60  82 /  60   0  10  60
SPG  64  74  66  82 /  60   0  10  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

09/RKR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
501 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-022000-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
501 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front
moves south through the region. Some thunderstorms could be
strong to severe during the afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop
today will be capable of producing damaging winds gusts, locally
heavy rains, and occasional lightning strikes. If threatening
weather approaches your location, move indoors immediately.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
period. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and occasional deadly
lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the weather today and self activate if
needed.

McMichael

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TORNADO          SEMINOLE                27.84N 82.79W
11/02/2018                   PINELLAS           FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE NEAR 91ST STREET AND 78TH
            AVE,

&&

RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W MACDILL AIR FORCE   27.86N 82.55W
11/02/2018  M60 MPH          GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION OPTF1, 3 W MACDILL AIR
            FORCE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
417 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SPRING HILL         28.47N 82.56W
11/02/2018                   HERNANDO           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TWO ROOFS BLOWN OFF HOUSES ON
            LARENDALE CIRCLE IN SPRING HILL. OTHER HOMES IN AREA HAD
            PARTIAL ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

SHIVELEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
420 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

FLZ043-052-242-022045-
Inland Citrus FL-Sumter FL-Polk FL-
420 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CITRUS...SUMTER AND
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Inverness Highlands North
to 9 miles south of Groveland to 6 miles north of Auburndale.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Wildwood, Bushnell, Lake Panasoffkee, Polk City, Center
Hill, Webster, Coleman, Rockridge, Rutland, Withla, Adamsville,
Tarrytown, Sumterville, Loughman, Oxford, The Green Swamp and
Gibsonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8195 2852 8206 2853 8209 2896 8233
      2896 8196 2835 8196 2836 8179 2835 8179
      2835 8166 2826 8166 2826 8156 2822 8153
      2822 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 246DEG 46KT 2897 8227 2843 8189 2815 8183

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
421 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAL LAKELAND LINDER AIR 27.99N 82.02W
11/02/2018  M65 MPH          POLK               FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            65 MPH WIND GUST IN SOUTH LAKELAND AND LAKELAND HIGHLANDS
            AREA.

&&

RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
423 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAKELAND HIGHLANDS      27.96N 81.95W
11/02/2018  M66 MPH          POLK               FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AR692, LAKELAND HIGHLANDS.

&&