Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
853 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Widespread rain event underway with 2 to 4 inches of rain
having already fallen across portions of Levy county.
Additional heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is
developing over the Gulf and moving eastward toward the
Nature Coast. HRRR suggests a brief lull in activity as one
short-wave passes early this afternoon, but another impulse
will move across the region later this afternoon, and this
will help push the main area of rain and storm farther to
the south and east.

While there is a marginal threat of severe storms across
central Florida today, the main event will be the locally
heavy rainfall. The most vulnerable area will be Levy county
where the heaviest rains have fallen so far, but anywhere
between the Tampa Bay area and Levy county is at risk for at
least some minor flooding from time to time through this
evening. Since we've been relatively dry lately, chose not
to hoist a flood watch at this time. If another band of
heavy rain sets up over Levy county today, flood warnings
may be required.

Have raised rain chances a bit for most of our central and
northern areas today through this evening. Otherwise, few
changes were made.

&&

.AVIATION...
For TPA, PIE, LAL, and SRQ...Widespread MVFR conditions
expected through tonight with some locally IFR ceilings
possible at times. To the south, A brief period of IFR
conditions expected at PGD before fog burns off between 13
and 14Z. MVFR ceilings expected behind frontal boundary
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Observations showing southerly winds 10 to 15 knots but
expect some strong and gusty winds and rough seas in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms. Main impact for storms will
be north of Tarpon Springs through the early afternoon
hours, then the area will shift south later today and
tonight. Winds will increase behind a frontal boundary
tonight and will require either exercise caution statements
or perhaps a short duration small craft advisory. Will
evaluate later model guidance and watch observation trends
before making the final decision this afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  61  77  60 /  70  70   0   0
FMY  85  68  81  61 /  40  60  10   0
GIF  81  60  78  58 /  70  70  10   0
SRQ  80  64  77  61 /  60  60   0   0
BKV  77  57  76  54 /  80  70   0   0
SPG  79  63  76  62 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
UPPER AIR...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Rude

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
438 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-102045-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
438 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally
heavy rain...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A cold front is expected to move across the region this weekend
with thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent
deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Oglesby