River Flood Warning 55, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Friday)...
The east coast of the U.S. is being dominated with 2 main upper
level features. The first is the irregular orientation of the upper
ridge extending from near Bermuda and another ridge extending
southwest from the Ohio River Valley into the north Gulf of Mexico.
In between these 2 features is the big talk in the weather world,
which is Hurricane Florence. She continues to be steered by this
ridge as is slowly makes its way westward toward the Carolina
coastline later tonight into Friday morning. The weather over
Florida will be dominated by weak upper ridging and a surface high
center for the next couple of days which will bring drier air and
decreasing rain chances for the next couple of days. With that being
said, temperatures will be on the warm side coming in 2-4 degrees
above normal through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Saturday - Thursday)...Hurricane Florence
should be weakening rapidly over inland South Carolina by Sunday
morning before making a turn to the north and northwest. For us the
only impacts Florence will bring is a chance of rip currents on
Sunday due to the north to northwesterly fetch. Also, just like
Friday and Saturday Florence will actually help to bring some drier
air over parts of Florida. Best rainshower chances will be in the
southern parts of our CWA while areas to the north will most likely
go rain free all weekend.

As Florence moves farther away on Monday the ridge will be able to
return and PW's will be back to around 2 inches. That just means
summer is not over yet as our typical sea breeze activity will
return.

&&

.Aviation (18z TAF)...
Mainly VFR conditions through the period with possible MVFR
conditions with thunderstorm activity. Storms will start to pop up
around 20z so have put VCTS for all sites until around 00z when
storms should be dissipating. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Pleasant boating conditions can be expected today as weak high
pressure sits over the gulf coast waters. No hazards expected
outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon
and evening. Winds will become onshore near the coast today as the
ridge of high pressure weakens and Hurricane Florence approaches the
North Carolina coast. Westerly flow will begin by Saturday and will
be strongest on Sunday. Expect winds to remain at 15 knots or less
and seas 3 feet or less. No other marine impacts expected

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture to remain in place through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. This will maintain high afternoon
humidities and provide daily chances for rain, so no fire weather
concerns are expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  91  80  91 /  20  20   0  20
FMY  75  91  78  90 /  40  10  10  20
GIF  75  93  78  93 /  50  20   0  30
SRQ  77  88  79  89 /  20  10   0  20
BKV  74  92  77  92 /  30  10  10  20
SPG  78  90  80  90 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...27/Shiveley