River Flood Warning 38, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
249 PM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Remainder of today-Sunday)...
The center of a sprawling mid level ridge slides from TX to the Deep
South as a weak inverted trough tracks across FL to the Gulf of
Mexico - dampening out tonight. At the surface broad Atlantic high
pressure stretches wast across the southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico
with a trough/frontal boundary across north FL that dissipates
overnight.

This afternoon and Sun will be very similar. Abundant moisture...
model PWAT values run 1.7 to around 2 inches...will support showers
and thunderstorms with isolated coverage in the early afternoons and
scattered to at times numerous in the late afternoon. A prevailing
southeasterly 1000-700MB flow will keep any sea breezes close to
the coast and will result in the most coverage along the Gulf
coast that slips offshore and begins to dissipate in the early
evening.

.LONG TERM (Monday night-Saturday)...
Mid level ridge center over the Deep South tracks east and offshore
by midweek...meandering there and weakening slightly through the
end of the period. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches
west to the lower Mississippi valley and the Gulf of Mexico with an
axis the resides between Latitude 30 and 35 North. An inverted
trough on the side side of the ridge may approach the southern
Bahamas and Cuba for the end of the week.

The surface ridge dominates with a moist air mass...PWAT values run
1.7 to near 2 inches while the steering flow is southeasterly to
easterly with the surface flow prevailing easterly...strong enough to
keep any afternoon sea breezes limited. Isolated showers and storms
form each afternoon then congregate near the coast late afternoon
with scattered to numerous coverage. These begin to dissipate as
they slide offshore in the early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFs. SE to E flow in place and it appears strong enough to
keep any bay/sea breezes very close to the shoreline...have opted
for VRB only at TPA/SRQ this afternoon. Convection is starting and
while none is currently very close to the terminals will begin
VCTS by 21Z. Expect SHRA/TSRA to increase through the afternoon
with the most coverage along the coast...with MVFR TSRA and gusty
winds in a 20-01Z window. With the SE or E flow anticipate the
bulk of the convection to be to the west by 23-01Z with VCTS TIL
02Z. Overnight L/V winds and mostly BKN high clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge axis north of the waters maintains easterly winds
robust enough to keep any sea breezes limited. Winds and seas
generally benign but locally higher in and near thunderstorms...
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast and east winds with moisture rich air prevails. Daily
showers and thunderstorms are expected with minimum RH running
above critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  30  40
FMY  74  92  75  91 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  74  92  75  91 /  20  30  10  40
SRQ  75  91  76  90 /  20  50  30  50
BKV  73  92  74  92 /  30  40  40  30
SPG  77  91  78  91 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
516 AM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-252130-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
516 AM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Ample moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
numerous thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze today with
the greatest storm coverage expected along and to the west of the
I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Torrential downpours, strong gusty winds, and frequent lightning
strikes will accompany the storms as they move to the west and
northwest around 10 mph. Remember if threatening weather approaches
your location, move indoors immediately.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Heavy rainfall the last few days across parts of Polk, Hillsborough,
and Manatee counties along with the possibility of additional heavy
rain today, will bring minor flooding to the Little Manatee River
at Wimauma, the Manatee River near Myakka Head, and the Peace
River at Zolfo Springs today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day
with the greatest storm coverage continuing to along and to the
west of the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. The main hazards from the storms will be locally
heavy rains, strong gusty winds, and frequent lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor river flooding is expected to continue on the Little
Manatee River at Wimauma, the Manatee River near Myakka Head, and
the Peace River at Zolfo Springs through Sunday with a slow fall
in water levels along these rivers expected into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

McMichael

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