Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 13, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this river flood warning at Jul 5, 2018, 10:20 AM EDT for DeSoto County, Florida. It took effect at Jul 6, 2018, 12:20 AM EDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2018, 10:20 AM EDT (14:20 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 6, 2018, 12:20 AM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2018, 8:55 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County DeSoto County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR 72 (ARHF1). The gauge peaked at 12.66 ft at Jul 6, 2018, 7:00 PM EDT.
- Action stage
- 10 ft
- Minor stage
- 12 ft
- Moderate stage
- 14.5 ft
- Major stage
- 16 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02297310, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
448
WGUS42 KTBW 051420
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1020 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers...
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Recent heavy rains have led to a rise in the water level for Horse
Creek near Arcadia. The water level is expected to remain elevated
through the weekend.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC027-060320-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0013.180706T0600Z-180709T1200Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0600Z.180707T0600Z.180709T0600Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* From late tonight until Monday morning.
* At 09 AM Thursday the stage was...11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight
tomorrow and continue to rise to near 12.5 feet by early Saturday
morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage by early
Monday morning.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet
on Apr 2 1993.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 11.3 Thu 09 AM 12.2 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.3
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$9 follow-up statements
676
WGUS82 KTBW 060210
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is ongoing or expected begin shortly on several area
rivers due to days of very heavy rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-070210-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180708T1030Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.180704T0009Z.180706T1200Z.180708T0430Z.NO/
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 09 PM Thursday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecasted to continue.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet by tomorrow
morning and expected to fall below flood stage early
Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 13.49 feet
on Sep 16 1979.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Little Manatee
Wimauma 11.0 13.1 Thu 09 PM 13.5 12.2 10.4 9.0 7.3
&&
LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231
$$
FLC027-070210-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.180706T0420Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0420Z.180708T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...Flood Warning extended until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* From after midnight tomorrow through further notice.
* At 09 PM Thursday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage overnight and continue to rise
to near 13.1 feet by early Monday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Buildings in Hidden Acres flood.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 13.2 feet
on Jul 4 2013.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 11.8 Thu 09 PM 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.1 12.9
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$750
WGUS82 KTBW 061551
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1151 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
..Minor flooding is occuring along several area rivers due to recent
heavy rainfall. Any additional heavy rainfall could exacerbate
flooding conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-071551-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180709T1800Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T0600Z.180709T1200Z.NO/
1151 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by after midnight
tomorrow. The river is expected to fall below flood stage Monday
morning.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and
Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.6 feet
on Feb 23 1936.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 13.9 Fri 11 AM 14.6 14.1 13.0 11.6 10.1
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC057-071551-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180708T0900Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.180704T0009Z.180706T0215Z.180708T0300Z.NO/
1151 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Saturday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late
evening.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet
on Aug 29 1981.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Little Manatee
Wimauma 11.0 12.5 Fri 11 AM 11.6 10.4 8.6 7.0 6.2
&&
LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231
$$
FLC027-071551-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180708T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1151 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until further notice.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet by early Sunday
morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Buildings in Hidden Acres flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 13.5 feet
on Aug 27 1953.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.5 Fri 11 AM 13.3 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.2
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$720
WGUS82 KTBW 070126
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Peace River At Arcadia
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is occurring along several area rivers due to recent
heavy rainfall. Any additional heavy rainfall could exacerbate
flooding conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-080125-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180709T1630Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T0600Z.180709T1030Z.NO/
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 9 PM Friday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.8 feet by after midnight
tonight. The river is expected to fall below flood stage Monday
morning.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 14.7 Fri 09 PM 14.8 14.2 12.9 11.5 10.1
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC057-080125-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180708T0600Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.180704T0009Z.180706T0215Z.180708T0000Z.NO/
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Saturday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 9 PM Friday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Saturday
evening.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Little Manatee
Wimauma 11.0 12.0 Fri 09 PM 11.7 10.2 8.6 7.2 6.1
&&
LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231
$$
FLC027-080125-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.180707T1800Z-180710T0600Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.180707T1800Z.180708T1800Z.180710T0000Z.NO/
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* From tomorrow early afternoon through late Monday night.
* At 8 PM Friday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday early
afternoon and continue to rise to near 11.3 feet by Sunday early
afternoon. The river is expected to fall below flood stage by
Monday evening.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 10.7 Fri 08 PM 10.9 11.2 11.2 10.8 10.3
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$
FLC027-080125-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180709T1800Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0600Z.180709T1200Z.NO/
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Friday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will hold near 12.7 feet through after midnight
tonight. The river is expected to fall below flood stage Monday
morning.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.7 Fri 08 PM 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.5 10.8
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$399
WGUS82 KTBW 071306
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
906 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
Peace River At Arcadia
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is occuring along several area rivers due to recent
heavy rainfall. Any additional heavy rainfall could exacerbate
flooding conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-081306-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180710T1200Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T0530Z.180710T0600Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 08 AM Saturday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Tuesday
morning.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and
Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.7 feet
on Sep 3 1985.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 14.7 Sat 08 AM 14.5 13.8 12.7 11.2 10.1
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC057-080600-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180708T0600Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.180704T0009Z.180706T0215Z.180708T0000Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until late tonight.
* At 08 AM Saturday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.5 feet
on Aug 2 1946.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Little Manatee
Wimauma 11.0 11.5 Sat 08 AM 10.2 8.1 6.6 5.9 5.4
&&
LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231
$$
FLC027-081306-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.180708T1200Z-180712T1200Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.180708T1200Z.180709T1800Z.180712T0600Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* From tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.
* At 08 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
and continue to rise to near 11.4 feet by early Tuesday morning.
The river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Thursday
morning.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The Girl Scout camp floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...3 to 4 homes in the river acres
subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp
floods.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.4 feet
on Jun 16 2016.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 10.8 Sat 08 AM 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.3 10.9
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$
FLC027-081306-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180709T0600Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180709T0000Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until late Sunday night.
* At 08 AM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow
evening.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet
on Jun 24 1953.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.5 Sat 08 AM 12.2 11.8 11.3 10.6 10.0
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$982
WGUS82 KTBW 080051
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in
Florida...
Little Manatee River At Wimauma
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Peace River At Arcadia
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is occurring along several area rivers due to recent heavy rainfall. Any additioanl heavy rainfall could worsen flooding conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-090052-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180710T1000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T2115Z.180710T0400Z.NO/
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 08 PM Saturday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and
Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.8 feet
on Aug 13 1974.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 14.8 Sat 08 PM 13.7 12.6 11.1 10.0 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC027-090052-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.180708T1800Z-180711T0600Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.180708T1800Z.180709T1200Z.180711T0000Z.NO/
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* From tomorrow early afternoon through late Tuesday night.
* At 08 PM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early
afternoon and continue to rise to near 11.2 feet by Monday evening.
The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The Girl Scout camp floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...3 to 4 homes in the river acres
subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp
floods.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.2 feet
on Aug 16 2016.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 10.8 Sat 08 PM 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.5 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$
FLC027-090052-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180709T1200Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180709T0600Z.NO/
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until Monday morning.
* At 08 PM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Monday
morning.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet
on Jun 24 1953.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.5 Sat 08 PM 11.8 11.3 10.7 10.0 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$
FLC057-080121-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180708T0600Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.180704T0009Z.180706T0215Z.180707T2152Z.NO/
851 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until late tonight.
* At 08 PM Saturday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.0 feet
on Oct 11 1971.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Little Manatee
Wimauma 11.0 10.9 Sat 08 PM 7.9 6.7 5.9 5.5 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231
$$213
WGUS82 KTBW 081306
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
906 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Peace River At Arcadia
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Minor flooding is occurring along several area rivers due to
recent heavy rainfall. Any additional heavy rainfall could worsen
flooding conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-091305-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180710T0000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T2115Z.180709T1800Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Monday evening.
* At 08 AM Sunday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow early
afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Additional residences downstream of County
Road 640 bridge begin flooding.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and
Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet
on Sep 10 1957.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 14.3 Sun 08 AM 13.3 12.0 10.8 9.7 9.0
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC027-091305-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.180709T0000Z-180711T1200Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.180709T0000Z.180710T0000Z.180711T0600Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* From this evening through Wednesday morning.
* At 08 AM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage this evening and
continue to rise to near 11.1 feet by early Tuesday morning. The
river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Wednesday
morning.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The Girl Scout camp floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...3 to 4 homes in the river acres
subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp
floods.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.1 feet
on Aug 18 2015.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 10.9 Sun 08 AM 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.0
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$
FLC027-091305-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180710T0600Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180710T0000Z.NO/
906 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until late Monday night.
* At 08 AM Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.6 feet
on Sep 18 2000.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.6 Sun 08 AM 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.5 9.9
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$276
WGUS82 KTBW 090140
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
940 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
Peace River At Arcadia
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.River levels along Horse Creek and Alafia River continue to
steadily recede and are expected to fall below flood stage on
Monday. The Peace River At Arcadia will crest overnight near flood
stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-092200-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180709T2200Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T2115Z.180709T1600Z.NO/
940 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until Monday evening.
* At 09 PM Sunday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast to continue.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow early
afternoon.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 13.7 Sun 09 PM 13.2 12.0 10.8 9.8 9.0
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC027-100000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180710T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.180709T0600Z.180709T0600Z.180709T1800Z.NO/
940 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* From overnight through Monday evening.
* At 08 PM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to reach flood stage overnight and
slowly decline through early tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.0 feet
on October 09 2012.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 10.9 Sun 08 PM 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.0
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$
FLC027-100140-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180710T0600Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180710T0000Z.NO/
940 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until late Monday night.
* At 08 PM Sunday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast to continue.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow
evening.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.5 Sun 08 PM 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.6 9.9
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$403
WGUS82 KTBW 091324
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
924 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in
Florida...
Peace River At Arcadia
...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...
Alafia River At Lithia
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Heavy rain during the weekend near Arcadia and Lithia has caused a
few rivers to get into minor flood stage. All rivers are expected to
slowly drop over the next few days.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC057-092009-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180709T2009Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.180706T0856Z.180707T2115Z.180709T1409Z.NO/
924 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Alafia River At Lithia
* Until this afternoon.
* At 09 AM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by late this
morning.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...River Drive and Squirrel Run Way
downstream of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One
home begins to flood.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Water begins to affect River Drive and
Squirrel Run Way downstream of County Road 640.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 13.1 feet
on Aug 2 1938.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Alafia
Lithia 13.0 13.1 Mon 09 AM 11.9 10.8 9.9 9.1 8.5
&&
LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218
$$
FLC027-100600-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180710T0600Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180710T0000Z.NO/
924 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until late tonight.
* At 08 AM Monday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Secondary roads in hidden acres and royal
palm begin to flood.
* Impact...at 10.5 feet...Two homes become isolated.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 12.3 feet
on Jul 22 1995.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 12.2 Mon 08 AM 11.8 11.3 10.6 10.0 9.4
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$
FLC027-091354-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180710T0000Z/
/ARCF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* Until this evening.
* At 08 AM Monday the stage was 11.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Access roads to river acres become
flooded.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...3 to 4 homes in the river acres
subdivision flood and the lowest portion of the girl scout camp
floods.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 11.0 feet
on Feb 21 1998.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Peace
Arcadia 11.0 11.0 Mon 08 AM 10.8 10.7 10.4 9.9 9.4
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
2714 8197 2735 8186
$$954
WGUS82 KTBW 100055
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
855 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in
Florida...
Horse Creek Near Arcadia
.Drier conditions have allowed the water levels to continue to drop,
allowing for the cancellation of the Flood Warning for Horse Creek
near Arcadia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
&&
FLC027-100125-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180710T0600Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.180706T0730Z.180707T0300Z.180709T2245Z.NO/
855 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Horse Creek Near Arcadia
* Until late tonight.
* At 08 PM Monday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...The access road to Hidden Acres is
impassable.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Horse Creek
Arcadia 12.0 11.9 Mon 08 PM 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.4
&&
LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 5, 9:03 AM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 9:03 AM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 903 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .UPDATE... A upper level low and attendant inverted surface trough now over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico south-southwest of the Panhandle (via water vapor satellite imagery) early this morning will continue to move to the west the remainder of the today. In its wake weak mid level troughing will remain over the region with weak high pressure at the surface supporting a light southeast to southerly wind flow over the forecast area. Ample moisture (PW 1.8 inches via 12Z raob data) combined with daytime heating should support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze circulations later this morning and into the afternoon as the low level cap breaks, with a light south 1000-700mb flow favoring highest convective coverage and pops focusing along and east of the I-75 corridor during mid to late afternoon. With a light and chaotic steering flow expect slow moving storms with some locally heavy rains possible. In addition, cool temperatures aloft creating steepening lapse rates may also support a few vigorous storms with strong gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes the main hazards. Ongoing forecast is in good shape with no morning update required at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR is expected at all terminals the remainder of the morning hours. Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may impact the terminals after 18Z as shra/tsra develop over the region and have handled with VCTS for now. The shra/tsra should end by 03Z tonight with prevailing VFR expected overnight into Friday morning. Southeast to south winds at 4 to 6 knots are expected, except becoming onshore at the coastal sites after 18Z as the sea breeze develops with gusts up to 25 knots possible in the vicinity of tsra. && .MARINE... Light southeast to south winds along with slight seas can be expected over the Gulf waters the remainder of today. Wind and seas will be higher near thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected. Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes expected in the next update around 10 AM. && .HYDROLOGY... Recent heavy rainfall associated with summer thunderstorms has driven several local rivers and streams into action and/or minor flood stage. Rivers currently at or forecast to reach minor flood stage include the Little Manatee River at Wimauma, and the Manatee River at Myakka Head. Both of these rivers will remain at Flood stage through today before starting to recede Friday into Saturday. The Horse Creek near Arcadia, and Peace River at Arcadia are both at Action Stage, and are forecast to remain at action stage through the upcoming weekend. Current forecast river stages are based on the most likely basin average rainfall forecasts over the next couple of days. Any significant local rainfall near these rivers may lead to further rises. Those living near these rivers are asked to monitor river levels closely and check the latest forecasts for any changes. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael HYDROLOGY...Mroczka UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:03 AM EDT, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-052115- Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee- Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters- Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are expected to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours and continue through the early evening. The greatest coverage of storms will be over the interior. Some of the storms could be strong with frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. ...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... Recent heavy rainfall has brought the water level up to above flood stage on the Little Manatee River at Wimauma and the Manatee River at Myakka Head. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding be observed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the next week. A few strong storms may occur any day with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed. Fleming
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 3:28 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | TBW | Charlotte, Lee, Sarasota | 7 days |
| Jul 5, 4:49 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | TBW | Lee | 26 min |
| Jul 5, 5:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | TBW | Charlotte | 24 min |
| Jul 5, 5:48 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | TBW | DeSoto | 27 min |
| Jul 5, 6:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | TBW | Hardee | 39 min |
| Jul 5, 6:46 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | TBW | Hillsborough, Pasco | 119 min |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.