Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

541 
WWUS82 KTBW 150012
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
812 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.Very dry air was in place across the area this afternoon for
several hours of critical humidities. However...humdities have
begun to slowly increase.

FLZ052-150115-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180315T0100Z/
Polk-
812 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY DUE TO HIGH ERC VALUES AND 
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
cancelled the Red Flag Warning. 

The low humdities of the afternoon have begun to slowly increase.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
137 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with a few
cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon. Light and variable
winds will pick up slightly though the daytime hours. Wind direction
will be coming out of the north to northwesterly direction.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 752 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

SHORT TERM (Overnight)...
Aloft - A ridge extends over the U.S. high plains...from central Mexico
to the Canadian Prairies as a short wave trough drops south from Canada
to the Upper Great Lakes. A broad low rotating over the northeastern
states eases eastward with a short wave trough...embedded in somewhat
relaxed cyclonic flow extending down to the Gulf of Mexico...swinging
across the Mid-Atlantic coast and driving a dry reinforcing cold front
through the region later tonight and Wed. Surface - The aforementioned
front moves through as high pressure over the upper Midwest slides
south down into the southern plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The southward moving high pressure and cold front will shift
northwesterly flow for much of the night to northerly by daybreak and
maintain a very dry air mass overnight. The model PWAT values run in
the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range with the higher values across the far south.
Skies will be mainly clear with the overnight lows well below
normal...in the 40s most locations except for the Nature Coast where
lows will briefly approach but are not expected to reach freezing. In
addition...while the air will be dry there will be just enough moisture
for patchy frost in Levy and perhaps northern Citrus counties which
will have slightly less wind.

MARINE...
Dry front moves through tonight and Wed with a slight shift and uptick
in winds...no more than 15 knots. High pressures settles into the Gulf
Wed and tracks east toward the Atlantic through the weekend...allowing
winds to subside and veer around.

FIRE WEATHER...
Most counties will see 6-7 hours of sub 35 percent RH Wed...with
inland locations bottoming out in low 20 percent range. The latest
FFS ERCs do not support Red Flag conditions due to RH durations
except for Pinellas which does not meet duration. However all
county ERC values are 27 or higher...creating Red Flag conditions
with winds of 15 MPH or higher. Current forecast winds are very
borderline and will allow the next shift to re-evaluate with new
data.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  66  44  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  71  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  69  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  67  43  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  33  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  50  68  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/Shiveley
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/Jillson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
515 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-132115-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
515 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High surf of 3 to 5 feet will produce dangerous rip currents
along area beaches today.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of around 20 knots and seas 5 to 7 feet will create
hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators today.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Low humidities are forecast for today, mainly over inland areas.
Winds are forecast to diminish, so red flag conditions are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Very low humidities are forecast for the next few days. Winds will
be light, but dry fuels may result in red flag conditions for some
locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Jillson