Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1239 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
be out of the north-northwest overnight, then shifting to an
east-northeast direction by tomorrow afternoon, but
remaining less than 10 knots. No aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 813 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and cooler high pressure is in place across the area
this evening. Winds have died off over the last hour or so
from the NW and will allow for some good radiational cooling
overnight. The rip current risk will continue through 7AM,
when winds will turn more to the NNE. Temperatures across
portions of the Nature Coast may touch freezing, and patchy
frost is possible toward morning. Temperatures otherwise are
on track to fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the
area. The dry conditions continue into Friday with highs
expected in the mid 60s to lower 70s. No update planned.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mainly
SCT cirrus in place. Winds will become light and variable
overnight, then become NNE at 5 to 10 knots in the later
morning, then in the later afternoon, turn onshore at the
terminals near the coast.

MARINE...
The high pressure center to the west of the state will
gradually shift east to over the area for Friday and then
continue east for Saturday, turning winds from the NW to the
NE/E Friday and then continuing around to the SE for
Saturday. Winds will then increase to near advisory level
and turn to the S/SW for Sunday and Monday as the next low
pressure system approaches and then the cold front moves
through the area with strong high pressure behind it. Winds
will remain elevated through Monday night and then subside
as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning for today has expired. The Fire Weather
Watch for Friday has been expanded to include Manatee, Polk,
and Lee Counties, as the new forecast ERC values came in
higher for those locations. Will update the Fire Weather
Forecast shortly for the new headline.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  51  75  64 /   0   0  10  40
FMY  72  51  78  64 /   0   0  20  40
GIF  69  46  78  62 /   0   0  10  40
SRQ  67  51  74  65 /   0   0  20  40
BKV  67  42  77  60 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  66  53  76  65 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST this morning for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-
     Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

AVIATION...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
444 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-082145-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
444 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High winds and moderate surf will produce a high risk of rip
currents along area beaches today.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected from late this
morning through this evening. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...high ERC values and warm temperatures will
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
On Friday...critical fire weather conditions are expected to
occur. A combination of strong winds...low relative
humidity...high ERC values and warm temperatures will contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Wynn