Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
the area through the early evening hours before diminishing. Outside
of convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of
the night. However, some low ceilings or patchy fog could occur at
ABY and VLD late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [846 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The southwesterly flow regime will continue today, resulting in an
early start to convection where convergence and confluence are both
maximized against(with) the land(sea) breeze. Additionally, as a
shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley today, a frontal system will
progress eastward through the Southeast. The surface front should
bring another round of convection to our western Panhandle and
southeast Alabama counties late this afternoon. The threat for
severe weather remains low, though the strongest storms capable of
producing gusty winds would likely be closer to the front later in
the afternoon. Highs will be capped in the upper 80s in most
locations, with low 90s possible in the Suwannee Valley.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The surface front is still scheduled to push across our area from
northwest to southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will lead the way possibly in a broken
line Tuesday night with increased development during daytime
heating on Wednesday. However, by that time, the front is forecast
to have pushed through most of the Tri-state area. The front may
stall over or just south of our local waters Thursday. PoPs for
Tuesday night will be in the 20-30% range and tapered 20-40% south
and east of a line roughly from Valdosta to Panama City. A drier
airmass will filter into the region in the wake of the front and
Thursday should be rainfree with light northerly low level flow.
Lows will mostly be in the lower to mid 70s with highs around 90
to the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Models now hint that the aforementioned front may become quasi-
stationary across the northeast gulf Friday through the weekend
with a surface wave or two developing on the boundary enhancing
rain chances for our CWA. At the very least, low level flow will
become easterly advecting Atlantic moisture across the region.
While the boundary is expected to gradually dissipate by Monday,
moist east to southeast flow combined with daytime heating will
keep rain chances in the forecast through the extended period.
Temperatures will be seasonal with highs around 90 and lows in the
lower 70s.

.MARINE...

Light to moderate west to southwest winds with 2 to 3 foot seas
through Wednesday. Winds will become northwest to north with the
passage of a cold front Wednesday night. Winds and seas are
expected to be low Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days, though drier conditions are expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Total forecast rain amounts through Wednesday will average less
than one-half inch. Therefore, latest river guidance keeps all
rivers just below action stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  72  92  73 /  30  20  10  10  10
Panama City   74  90  74  90  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
Dothan        72  91  71  89  71 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        73  91  71  90  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      73  91  72  91  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
Cross City    75  91  74  91  74 /  30  40  10  10  20
Apalachicola  77  89  75  89  76 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Wednesday
     for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Barry

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2018

FLZ011-211830-
Jackson FL-
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM CDT...

At 1249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Marianna, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Graceville, Malone, Cottondale, Greenwood, Campbellton, Bascom, Jacob
City, Lovedale, Haynes, Two Egg, Hornsville, Jacobs, Browntown,
Chipola Terrace, Ellaville, Buena Vista, Marianna Municipal A/P and
Sills.

LAT...LON 3098 8549 3100 8541 3100 8500 3097 8500
      3096 8498 3093 8498 3088 8493 3087 8494
      3085 8493 3078 8541 3091 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 253DEG 19KT 3088 8533

42-DVD