Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A broad upper trough continues to move through northern MS and AL
which is providing for broad scale upper lift across most of the
southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to move
from west to east, mostly along the coasts and in the southern
half of the region. However, in the last hour or so additional
storms were developing to the north. Hires guidance has continued
to show a broken line of storms developing as the trough moves
east. This is sort of developing now in central AL and will be
moving east-southeast. The HRRR/ARW has it moving almost to
Tallahassee before running out of instability and diminishing.
Other hires, NMM/NAM, have it diminishing much farther west. Given
the storms are already out there, it seems like they will hold it
together into the CWA at least. A strong storm or two is possible
especially with PW values near 2 inches and 3-4k J/KG of CAPE.
With the earlier storms throwing out boundaries, this could also
help strengthen storms as the boundaries collide. Everything
generally looks to diminish by midnight with just a few
showers/storms possible overnight, mostly over the water or along
the coast. Lows should drop to the lower 70s. Although not
mentioned in the forecast at this time due to uncertainty, patchy
fog in areas that received rainfall is possible.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

An upper low will close off across the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night and drop southward into the Ohio Valley
Sunday/Sunday night with the associated trough cutting through our
CWA. Deep layer moisture is forecast to increase with PW's near
2.0" on Saturday before some mid-layer drier air moves in on
Sunday. The deep layer flow will transition to become northwest on
Saturday and north on Sunday. While abundant moisture will be in
place, this flow regime favors higher PoPs over the Florida zones
as the sea breeze is somewhat pinned closer to the coast with
storms moving toward coastal areas. Some upper level energy along
with daytime heating will result in a more scattering of
convection across our GA and AL zones both days. High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 90s with lows in the 70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The upper low will gradually weaken and lift to the northeast
with troughing being replaced with nearly zonal to southwest flow
over the local area through most of the week. This is a wetter
pattern for us and will be reflected in the higher PoPs at least
through mid-week. Temperatures will remain near seasonal levels
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed across the area
and are moving west to east. ECP could have a break in the storms
until later this afternoon with another line moving to TLH in the
next few hours. Additional storms may impact the terminals later
this afternoon as additional storms move in from central AL.
Left a lingering VCTS in at all sites due to uncertainty on where
the additional storms will develop. VFR conditions and lights winds
should occur outside of thunderstorms with VIS/CIG potentially
dropping to IFR temporarily in storms. Any storms that form will
diminish after sunset with light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate westerly winds, generally from 10 to 15 knots, will
persist through Saturday night with seas slightly increasing to 2
to 3 feet. Winds and seas will subside Sunday and remain low at
least through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersion values below 20 are possible in Big Bend Florida
tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog is possible in the early
morning hours. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce brief periods of
heavy rainfall in localized areas through the next several days.
However, this is not expected to result in any widespread
flooding. Rivers are likely to remain below flood stage across our
area throughout this period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  74  94  75 /  50  40  20  40  30
Panama City   75  89  76  91  77 /  40  40  20  40  40
Dothan        73  91  73  93  75 /  50  30  20  30  20
Albany        73  91  73  93  75 /  50  30  20  20  20
Valdosta      73  92  73  93  74 /  40  30  20  30  20
Cross City    75  90  75  90  75 /  30  40  30  40  30
Apalachicola  77  88  77  90  78 /  40  40  30  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>