Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
741 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate before midnight. No
significant changes were made with the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dissipate before midnight.
VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms but isolated
patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the early morning hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [349 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper high pressure system over the southeast states will
persist through tonight while an inverted upper level trough moves
westward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge of
high pressure extending along the Appalachian Mountains to the
northeast Gulf of Mexico will remain largely in place, but models
are hinting toward a possible weak easterly wave forming late
tonight across northeast gulf. With the approach of the upper
level wave and a sea breeze pushing inland, the ongoing isolated
to scattered afternoon convection will persist throughout the
evening, and then gradually dissipate after midnight mainly across
the inland areas.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The inverted upper level trough will continue to move westward
from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the north central gulf
throughout the day Tuesday. The combination of upper level
impulses associated with the trough moving over the forecast area
on Tuesday, decreasing stability due to strong surface heating and
another sea breeze pushing inland, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will re-develop early in the day and persist
through much of the day, with coverage decreasing slightly across
the eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. Rain
chances are then a bit lower on Wednesday due to increased
subsidence and drier air beneath a region of high pressure that
moves overhead. With plenty of sunshine each afternoon, high
temperatures will range from 90 to 95 inland areas with heat
indices expected to top out between 101 to 106 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As broad troughing settles in over the eastern CONUS it
sandwiches the local area between it and high pressure to our
south. This brings a period of unsettled weather Thursday and
Friday as a west-southwest flow maintains deep layer moisture and
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop each day.
A series of shortwave troughs then act to deepen the broader
eastern CONUS trough on Saturday, causing it to dig southward
towards the Gulf Coast where it remains until Monday. This will
continue the pattern of unsettled weather for the local area
straight through the weekend and into early next week. Expect
temperatures to cool somewhat due to the increased coverage of
clouds and rain, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure across the southeast states will
gradually shift south over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
midweek and then persist into the weekend. Favorable marine
conditions throughout the week with light winds and low seas. A
slight uptick in winds and seas can be expected heading into the
weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface high pressure will persist across the region
with relative humidity values remaining above critical thresholds.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm coverages expected
through midweek, with heat indices again climbing to between 100 to
106 Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds for the next several days, so no red flag
conditions are forecast.

.HYDROLOGY...

The St Marks river at Newport remains in minor flood stage and is
expected to fall below flood stage during the latter half of this
week. The Apalachicola and Ochlockonee rivers will hover in action
stage for the next several days with slow falls expected after
midweek. Though summertime showers and storms in the afternoon
are anticipated, no additional flooding is forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  93  73  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
Panama City   76  92  75  89  76 /  40  50  10  20  20
Dothan        75  93  73  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  10
Albany        76  93  74  92  74 /  50  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  92  73  93  74 /  50  30  20  30  10
Cross City    73  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  77  90  75  88  77 /  40  40  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...TRC
LONG TERM...TRC
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...JP
FIRE WEATHER...JP
HYDROLOGY...DRJohnson

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE WOODVILLE         30.30N 84.24W
08/06/2018                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NATURAL
            WELLS DR AND BLUE WATERS ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

ALZ066-067-070215-
Dale AL-Henry AL-
846 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALE AND
NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Texasville, or 11 miles northwest of Abbeville, moving southwest at
10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bells Crossroads, Skipperville, Echo, Edwin, Roberts Crossroads,
Arguta, Snells Crossroads, Barefield Crossroads, Clopton, Phillips
Crossroads, Ward Bridge, Dykes Crossroads and Bertha.

LAT...LON 3171 8536 3161 8528 3143 8549 3162 8566
      3162 8542 3171 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 053DEG 10KT 3165 8542

42-DVD