Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a stationary front and
the Gulf seabreeze fronts will continue to be the trigger for
afternoon storms. Weak steering flow will result in slow storm
motions and the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Rain amounts
of 1-3" could fall quickly under the heaviest storms. Afternoon
highs will be in the lower 90s, with heat indices pushing 100
degrees.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Expect a transition of the synoptic pattern during the short term.
The stationary front that has been located over our CWA for the past
several days will begin to erode through Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. Sunday will be the main day of transition as the
front completely erodes and a ridge of high pressure over the
Atlantic begins to amplify and move west. Due to the loss of
forcing along the dissipating front, most of the convection on
Sunday will be confined to the seabreeze with the highest PoPs
over the Florida counties.

For Monday and into Tuesday morning, the intensifying ridge combined
with a deepening trough to the northeast will result in an increased
southerly, moisture rich, flow. Based on this synoptic setup,
expect an increase in PoPs (especially over night on Monday). PWAT
values will be around the climatological average for this time of
year.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s on Sunday and in the
lower 90s Monday.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A wetter pattern is anticipated through the long-term period as
the western edge of a ridge of high pressure to the east and a
deepening trough across the south-central US work together to
increase southerly flow and thus increase rain chances. There is
good agreement in this pattern between the Euro and GFS models
through much of next week. Rain chances will be in the 60-70%
range for each afternoon, with slightly lower chances overnight.

Max temperatures will start out near 90 on Tuesday, but will drop
into the mid 80s for much of the week with ample clouds and
likely showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

[Through 18z Sunday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area through the early evening hours.
Convection will diminish after sunset. Some patchy fog and/or low
ceilings cannot be ruled out late tonight with TLH and VLD having
the best chance of seeing any restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be around 5 to 10 knots until Monday
night. Wave heights during this period will be around 1 foot.
Southerly and southwesterly winds will begin to gradually increase
to 10-15 knots by Wednesday. After, winds are expected to return
to around 5 to 10 knots by Thursday. Wave height will remain
around 1-2 feet through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from low dispersion indices, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Steinhatchee River has now dropped below minor flood level and
thus have canceled the flood statement for that area.
Nevertheless, another round of slow moving storms over the next
two days could produce very localized minor flooding in the
stronger storms, but widespread flooding rains are not anticipated
the next few days.

Later, a wetter pattern is expected to move into the area around
the middle of next week which could bring a better chance for
higher rainfall totals and localized flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  50  50
Panama City   76  90  76  89  76 /  20  30  30  50  50
Dothan        74  92  73  91  74 /  20  40  30  60  40
Albany        74  92  73  92  74 /  20  50  30  60  40
Valdosta      74  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  30  60  50
Cross City    74  90  73  90  74 /  30  30  30  40  50
Apalachicola  77  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DiCatarina
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DiCatarina
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTHWEST FLORIDA - INT 30.36N 85.80W
07/28/2018  M51 MPH          BAY                FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION ECP, NORTHWEST FLORIDA -
            INTERNATIONAL APRT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

FLZ012-112-282000-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-
327 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BAY COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

At 327 PM EDT/227 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Lynn Haven, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds near 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Springfield, Hiland Park, Parker,
Nixon, Bayhead, Southport, Cedar Grove, Dirego Park, Bay Harbor,
Recota Beach, College Station, Bayou George, Camp Flowers, Cairo,
Brannonville, Millville and Vicksburg.

LAT...LON 3024 8577 3038 8560 3030 8539 3022 8539
      3006 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 303DEG 8KT 3027 8559

42-DVD

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