Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.UPDATE...

Thunderstorms are wrapping up over most of the area but locations
north of Tallahassee and to Albany are seeing residual showers and
thunderstorms along an expansive outflow boundary from earlier
convection to our northeast. These showers and storms won't get
much stronger and we should see these slowly weaken through
midnight as the upper level energy departs to the east and we
continue to stabilize overnight. Shower activity will shift to
offshore waters tonight with additional development over inland
locations expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [743 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging is in place over the tri-state area today, with a
mean 1000-700 mb layer wind around 10 kts from the west-southwest.
This flow generally renders pretty high coverage of afternoon
seabreeze storms across the area, but will also be enhanced slightly
in our northern zones as a weak +PV anomaly pushes into central AL
and GA through the evening. MLCAPE is around 2000-3000 J/kg this
afternoon over the western third of our area and these higher values
are expected to expand eastward into the rest of our area over the
next few hours. A few storms could produce strong to severe (50-60
MPH) wind gusts this afternoon and evening. SPC has increased our SW
GA counties to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low-mid 90s again today,
with heat indices peaking around 100-105. Overnight, temperatures
will dip into the low-mid 70s, upper 70s-around 80 along the
immediate coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Weak flow will be the rule in the short term with high pressure
over the north central Gulf and weak troughing across the eastern
seaboard stretching southwestward towards our area. Plenty of
moisture will be in place and showers and storms will develop
across the coastal waters overnight and over land during the day
due to seabreezes/heating/outflows. The NAM and ECAM depicts an
MCS Thursday night arriving from the north and making it into the
Gulf waters Friday. Its also supported somewhat by the GFS/Euro.
This could have some implications to the PoP forecast Friday with
the atmosphere being convectively worked over in the wake of the
MCS. However, too much moisture and eventual diurnal instability
not to lower PoPs so we keep with seasonal averages despite
questions on the atmosphere. Highs will be in the mid 90s and lows
in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The generally wet pattern will continue in the long term. The ridge
currently over the region is expected to weaken going into the
weekend. The introduction of lower pressure, and ample moisture due
to southerly flow, will result in more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Saturday-Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will have
slightly lower PoPs with the intrusion of drier air. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows around
the mid 70s.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact VLD over the
next couple of hours, though vcts are possible at TLH and ABY. VFR
will prevail through the TAF, outside of storms. A decent coverage
of showers and storms is forecast once again tomorrow afternoon.

.MARINE...

Westerly light to moderate winds through Friday will give way to
a more southerly wind this weekend as a trough of low pressure
enters the Gulf waters. Seas will remain low with a slight uptick
on southerly flow late in the weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the entire period.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

The wet weather continues through the weekend. Most local rivers are
steady or falling at this time. All local rivers are below action
stage. QPF over the next seven days is 1 to 1.75 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  95  75  94  75 /  30  50  30  50  30
Panama City   79  90  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  50  30
Dothan        74  95  75  92  74 /  30  40  40  50  40
Albany        75  96  75  94  75 /  40  50  50  40  40
Valdosta      73  95  74  94  75 /  40  40  40  50  30
Cross City    74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  20  50  30
Apalachicola  79  90  79  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dobbs
NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl/Skeen
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1053 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ143>145-156-157-280330-
Miller GA-Decatur GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-Grady GA-
1053 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR...NORTHERN
GRADY...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN
BAKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

At 1053 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Newton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds near 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pelham, Camilla, Bainbridge, Whigham, Climax, Vada, Akridge, Capel,
Elpino, Hopeful, Hoggard Mill, Steinham Store, Harrells Still,
Peoples Still, Spence, Mitchell Co A/P, Branchville, Cooktown and
Bellview.

LAT...LON 3108 8411 3108 8412 3097 8412 3094 8410
      3086 8451 3119 8468 3131 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 329DEG 20KT 3118 8435

42-DVD

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