Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A broad, weak trough will remain in place across the region through
the period, with a lobe of vorticity rounding the base of the trough
overnight. A line of showers and thunderstorms across eastern MS/
western AL at this hour marks the leading edge of this feature.
Given the environment, this activity will progress eastward through
the afternoon and evening hours, yielding a second shot of showers
and storms across portions of the wiregrass late this evening into
the early overnight hours. Drier mid-level air will begin to filter
into the region tonight as the aforementioned lobe of vorticity
advects into the region. This, coupled with wet soils and a moist
boundary layer will support the potential for patchy fog in some
areas late tonight. The limiting factor with tonight's fog potential
will be mixing from non calm surface winds. Warmer high temperatures
this afternoon and continued mostly cloudy conditions through
the period will keep low temperatures in the 70s tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A brief break from the rainy conditions looks to set up toward the
end of the short term period. Model guidance shows that deep layer
southerly flow will continue on Friday, and with much of the
region still fairly moist this should support showers and
thunderstorms across interior areas during the afternoon and
evening hours. High temperatures will be on the rise for Friday
with a few areas, particularly in the Florida Panhandle where the
rain chances will be less, seeing highs in the lower 90s.

By Saturday, model guidance is in good agreement that mid level
dry air will advance over the region in the wake of a shortwave
trough moving through the Tennessee River Valley. As a result,
this will keep rain chances below normal for this time of year,
generally in the 20-30 percent range. High temperatures will also
be warmer than the past few days, with some areas having a chance
at reaching the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Model guidance shows a weak trough of low pressure setting up
across the Florida Peninsula by Sunday and with a steady stream of
tropical moisture heading northward, expect rain chances to again
be on the increase Sunday and through the long term period. Though
the surface trough dissipates by Tuesday, aloft, our region will
remain in between ridging across Mexico and east of the Florida
Peninsula, which will favor good chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected to stay
a couple of degrees below normal due to all the anticipated
convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

SCT TSRA have developed over the Florida Panhandle and is spreading
northeastward at this hour. Expect TS in the vicinity at all TAF
sites at times this afternoon, with reductions in vsby and CIGS
directly under any activity. Southerly winds will prevail AOB 10kts.
MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible once again late tonight due
to reductions in vsby and CIGS. Confidence in any vsbys dropping
below 3SM is low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. Some increase in easterly flow is expected by Sunday
as a weak trough of low pressure moves near the marine area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Decent rainfall over the last few days has alleviated dry
conditions across much of the region. The heaviest rain has been
across the Suwannee River Basin and westward into portions of the
western Florida Big Bend as well as Southwest Georgia. Some small
rises are occurring on rivers across the region, but all locations
are well below action stages. Additional rainfall over the next
few days does not appear to be significant to warrant a flood
threat.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  89  69  91  69 /  20  40  10  20  10
Panama City   74  86  74  87  72 /  20  20  10  20   0
Dothan        70  88  71  90  70 /  30  50  20  30  10
Albany        70  85  70  90  69 /  30  60  20  30  10
Valdosta      69  87  68  91  68 /  20  50  10  20  20
Cross City    70  86  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  74  85  73  85  72 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW BETHEL            30.26N 84.35W
05/17/2018                   WAKULLA            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON SR-267. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KGG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
311 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

FLZ007>009-172045-
Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
311 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of De Funiak Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Ponce De Leon, Douglass Crossroad and Argyle.

LAT...LON 3066 8614 3077 8615 3079 8593 3064 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 267DEG 12KT 3071 8601

04-MCD