Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

456 
FZUS72 KTAE 261716
MWSTAE

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1216 PM EST MON FEB 26 2018

GMZ730-261726-
/O.CAN.KTAE.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180226T1745Z/
1216 PM EST MON FEB 26 2018

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were... 
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm...

The thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a
significant threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 3012 8402 3004 8390 2996 8426 3002 8431
      3014 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 238DEG 17KT 3010 8410 

$$

38-GODSEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1115 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

At 16 UTC the cold front was located roughly along a line from
near Mexico Beach to Quitman, GA to just north of Valdosta. A
narrow line of showers with a few thunderstorms was occurring
just ahead of the cold front and is moving to the east around 40
mph. While there is modest shear present this morning (40-45 kt),
the instability is quite limited.

Models this morning have been too slow with the progression of the
cold front across the area so have made some significant updates
to the forecast based mainly on current radar trends.
Additionally, temperatures have been adjusted down considerably
as a 10-12 degree drop is occurring right behind the front. With
fairly decent coverage of stratus behind the front, do not expect
temperatures to recover much, with most areas behind the front
likely to remain in the 60s throughout the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [614 AM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. A couple minor
shortwave troughs will move through the pattern during this
timeframe. One on Monday night and one on Wednesday morning. At the
surface a cold front will move through on Monday night. High
pressure will remain over the Mid-Atlantic bringing easterly winds
on Tuesday. Southerly winds will return on Wednesday as high
pressure moves well out into the Atlantic and a new low begins to
develop near OK/KS. Rain chances will be diminishing on Monday night
with POPs decreasing to 20 to 35 percent. There will be another
chance for rain on Wednesday as low level moisture increases. Cloud
cover will linger for most if not all of this forecast period. Lows
will be in the 50s and lower 60s. Highs will be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels a trough will move through the Southeast on
Thursday evening. A ridge will move in on Friday and remain over the
Southeast. At the surface a low will track eastward over the
Midwest. An associated cold front will move through the region on
Thursday. This front will likely weaken as it moves through but it
will still bring a good chance for rain and a few thunderstorms on
Thursday. POPs will be 30 to 60 percent with the highest chances in
SE Alabama, SW Georgia and the FL Panhandle. By Thursday night
cooler and much drier air will be moving in as high pressure slides
eastward from the Great Plains. Lows in the 40s are expected by
Thursday night. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Friday.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]...

Areas of fog will prevail over TLH early this morning, while
showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage over
our western terminals (DHN and ECP). IFR/LIFR cigs currently
prevail in these areas, although some improvement to MVFR is
possible later this morning. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibility are
also expected with the showers and isolated storms. VFR conditions
will return during the afternoon as showers/storms end from
northwest to southeast across our area.

.MARINE...

Light to moderate southerly winds will become northeasterly Monday
night as a cold front moves through. Winds will increase on
Wednesday night. Strong southerly winds are expected on Thursday.
Strong northerly winds are expected Thursday night and Friday
morning as another cold front moves through.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the next few days
as RH values remain high across our area.

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are fairly steady and most are below action stage.
Rainfall totals over the next 7 days are forecast to range from one-
tenth of an inch to 1.25 inches. The heavier totals are forecast for
SE Alabama, SW Georgia and the FL Panhandle. At this time flooding
is not expected except for the typical ponding of water on roadways
and low lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  60  74  59  79 /  90  10  10  10  20
Panama City   69  61  73  63  76 /  60   0  10  10  20
Dothan        66  55  71  58  77 /  40   0  10  10  30
Albany        67  54  70  56  76 /  80  10  10  10  30
Valdosta      75  58  71  56  79 /  90  10  10  10  20
Cross City    79  63  77  59  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  72  63  73  63  75 /  60  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
805 AM EST MON FEB 26 2018

GAZ143>145-156-157-261345-
Miller GA-Decatur GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-Grady GA-
805 AM EST MON FEB 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 845 AM
EST...

At 804 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles north of West Bainbridge, or 8 miles
north of Bainbridge, moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, Vada, Hanover, Ausmac, Hopeful, Branchville, Eldorendo,
Decatur Co A/P, Steinham Store and Harrells Still.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3132 8430 3105 8415 3090 8466 3109 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1304Z 248DEG 42KT 3102 8456

38-GODSEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
852 AM EST MON FEB 26 2018

GAZ146-157-158-261430-
Colquitt GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
852 AM EST MON FEB 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN
GRADY...NORTHWESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 930 AM EST...

At 851 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Pelham to near
Cairo. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Ochlocknee, Coolidge, Akridge, Grady Co A/p, Capel,
Autreyville, Merrillville, Chastain, Spence, Dawesville, Quality,
Pasco and Murphy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8375 3088 8393 3088 8429 3108 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 267DEG 26KT 3106 8412 3090 8426

38-GODSEY