Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
417 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place today. Predominantly
easterly flow has persisted over the area since last Wednesday
night. At first, this was advecting much drier air into the area,
but a more moist airmass from the Atlantic Ocean is beginning to
filter in as seen in our gradual increase in PWATs in our last few
soundings. Today will be dry again for most of the area, but our
eastern zones may see a return of isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging will gradually break down as a northern stream
longwave trough moves into the Central Plains and PTC 14 moves
deeper into the Gulf. Moisture will increase through the period
associated with the shifting ridge axis as well as the approaching
tropical cyclone. Thus, scattered showers and isolated storms are
expected on Monday with the coverage of showers increasing on
Tuesday. Highs should remain in the 90s on Monday, and finally
fall below 90 on Tuesday with the increase in cloud cover and
shower activity.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

It's looking increasingly likely that the Florida Panhandle will
be impacted by what will likely become Michael. The operational
GFS and ECMWF, as well as the UKMET all have the center making
landfall anywhere from Apalachee Bay to approx. Destin. While the
Canadian is a far west outlier; however, it also lies on the
western edge of the GEPS envelope. The ensemble spread is a bit
wider than the operational spread (excluding the Canadian),
stretching from the Mobile area east to Cedar Key. Within this
window there's still considerable uncertainty as to exactly where
landfall is expected, and when, with the ECMWF being the slow
outlier. This far out, intensity is also tough to pin down though
models are trending slightly stronger with PTC14. Expect
strengthening to occur as the system moves deeper into the Gulf
into a less sheared environment. At this time the message remains
that all interests along the north-central/northeast Gulf coast
need to be preparing for a tropical system (Storm or Hurricane)
around mid-week.

In the wake of the tropical system a punch of cooler and dryer air
is expected as a cold front moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

Some MVFR vsbys and cigs will be possible this morning near VLD and
ABY, which should clear around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with light easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Cautionary conditions will deteriorate to Advisory levels tonight,
with a continued upward trend in winds and seas as PTC 14 moves
into the Gulf. It is looking increasingly likely that the
northeast Gulf will be impacted by a tropical cyclone early to mid
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersions are forecast Sunday and Monday afternoon, especially
across north Florida. No red flag conditions are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Mostly dry conditions for the next few days are expected. Higher
chances of rain will return for the middle part of the week as the
potential increases for a tropical system to move into the northern
Gulf of Mexico. Flooding concerns in our area will need to be
monitored and will depend heavily on the track and speed of the
system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  73  89  76  87 /  10  10  30  10  60
Panama City   89  75  88  76  86 /  10  10  30  30  60
Dothan        89  71  89  73  86 /  10  10  30  10  40
Albany        90  71  90  74  86 /  10  10  30  10  60
Valdosta      89  72  89  74  85 /  20  20  30  20  60
Cross City    90  73  90  76  88 /  10  20  30  20  60
Apalachicola  86  77  86  78  85 /  10  20  30  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...DVD