Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
302 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

There is a broken line of showers and thunderstorms entering the CWA
from the east and these, in addition to the other scattered storms
will continue to push westward through the afternoon and evening. A
strong to severe storm is possible. Convection should diminish in
the 1-2z time frame with re-development over the water for the
second half of the night. With easterly flow persisting through
tonight, low clouds will be possible Monday morning. Lows tonight
will drop into the lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will remain centered well to our northeast
keeping moist southeast flow in place. This will also help steer
the tropical wave to the west northwest which should be over or
near the Keys by daybreak Monday. NHC has now given the tropical
wave a 90% chance of developing at least into a tropical
depression before approaching the central gulf coast by the end of
this period. There remains some uncertainty concerning potential
local impacts on this developing system. However, latest thinking
is that in addition to heavy rainfall potential, the most
significant impacts will be increasing winds and seas for our
local waters along with an increased rip current threat. All
interests along the northeast gulf coast should monitor this
situation closely. As expected, PoPs the next few days will be
elevated (50-70%). Temps will be near to slightly above seasonal
levels.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The tropical system is expected to be inland over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley and pull further away from the region
Wednesday into Thursday while weakening. Deep tropical moisture
may linger at least over our western zones Wednesday before
a somewhat drier airmass with more seasonal PoPs return for the
remainder of the week into the next weekend. Temperatures are
forecast near seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the ECP area over
the next few hours but the bulk of convection will move in from
the FL east coast into the VLD area and push westward into TLH,
ABY, and even DHN late this afternoon/evening. While guidance is
hinting at low clouds tomorrow morning, have shown SCT in the
TAFs given observations from this morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be out of an easterly direction across the coastal waters
today through Thursday. Both winds and seas will peak Monday night
through Tuesday, when at least advisory level conditions are
expected, as a tropical system moves across the waters. Conditions
will gradually improve thereafter into Thursday, as the tropical
system moves out of the waters, and winds and seas subside.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions will not occur over the next several days with
relative humidity remaining above critical levels across the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Heavy rain is possible each day with afternoon convection, however
the potential for heavy rain will increase for Monday and especially
Tuesday, as a tropical wave moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with the
highest amounts closer to the coast. High rainfall rates and the wet
ground may allow for minor flooding, particularly across urbanized
or poor drainage areas. With this tropical wave still a few days
out, it's important to monitor the forecast this weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  74  86  74 /  30  70  30  70  30
Panama City   72  88  75  84  76 /  40  70  50  80  50
Dothan        71  89  72  86  72 /  20  50  20  60  30
Albany        73  90  73  87  73 /  10  60  20  50  10
Valdosta      72  89  73  88  74 /  10  60  20  50  10
Cross City    73  89  74  88  74 /  20  70  30  70  20
Apalachicola  75  88  77  84  77 /  40  70  60  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LN

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