Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Tallahassee, FL

351 
WWUS52 KTAE 311807
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

FLC005-311816-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-180831T1830Z/
Bay FL-
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3065 8606 3070 8584 3044 8562 3044 8577
      3032 8577 3044 8586 3041 8588 3029 8580
      3031 8576 3028 8573 3024 8577 3026 8586
      3029 8585 3030 8581 3034 8584 3041 8596
      3034 8599 3043 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 131DEG 14KT 3046 8583 

$$

FLC131-133-311830-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-180831T1830Z/
Walton FL-Washington FL-
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALTON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 106 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles southwest
of Vernon, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Freeport, Ebro, Hinsons Crossroads, Red Bay, Bruce, Red
Head, Eucheeanna, Holmes Valley, Millers Ferry, Pine Log, Knox Hill
and Riverside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8606 3070 8584 3044 8562 3044 8577
      3032 8577 3044 8586 3041 8588 3029 8580
      3031 8576 3028 8573 3024 8577 3026 8586
      3029 8585 3030 8581 3034 8584 3041 8596
      3034 8599 3043 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 131DEG 14KT 3046 8583 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

30-PULLIN

590 
WWUS52 KTAE 311817
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

FLC131-133-311827-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-180831T1830Z/
Walton FL-Washington FL-
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are 
still possible with this thunderstorm as it moves east into Walton 
County.

LAT...LON 3065 8606 3070 8584 3044 8562 3044 8577
      3032 8577 3044 8586 3041 8588 3029 8580
      3031 8576 3028 8573 3024 8577 3026 8586
      3029 8585 3030 8581 3034 8584 3041 8596
      3034 8599 3043 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 131DEG 14KT 3049 8587 

$$

30-PULLIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
103 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

SCT SHRA/TSRA continue to slowly develop across the region at this
hour. Expect activity to increase in coverage late this afternoon
and this evening, affecting all terminals. Reductions in vsby and
CIGS expected under any storms. CIGs will lower once again prior
to sunrise, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected at most sites.
Prevailing wind out of the southeast AOB 10kts through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1008 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low clouds will scatter out this morning with partly cloudy skies
today. Showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters will have a
tendency to propagate into the Florida Panhandle through the mid-
afternoon, especially west of the Big bend. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening along the
seabreeze boundaries and move inland, with the greatest coverage
near the Suwanee River and northwest of the Big Bend. High temps
will be slightly below average across the western FL panhandle and
southeast AL due to cloud cover and near average elsewhere.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

Tonight the local area will be on the western fringe of deep layer
ridging anchored just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Showers/storms
lingering from coastal convection moving inland should be
dissipating by 8PM. However, another batch should be moving SE to
NW from central FL up through the Panhandle around this time,
aided by a weak surface low likely forming along an easterly sea
breeze boundary. The CAM guidance is consistently showing this
but does show it dissipating as it moves westward into a region
that will be worked over from earlier convection, along with the
loss of daytime heating. After those dissipate, the night should
be mostly dry over land.

Looks like a similar set up for Saturday/Saturday night as we saw
for Friday, although not as much surface convergence will be present.
The highest chances of rain will be concentrated west of the
local area due to a weak LLJ forming. But we will still see the
normal afternoon convection with a potential for additional storms
to move SE to NW again from central FL along the prevailing east-
southeasterly flow.

As the high pressure system settles southward, flow turns more due
easterly Sunday. This should translate to an earlier start to the
westward progression of the storms (before 8Pm ish like previous
nights). Storms should be diminishing by midnight.

A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out either day Sat/Sun with
both showing similar soundings. Shear is non existent and
instability may end up slightly higher on Sunday, especially if we
don't get as much late morning/early afternoon seabreeze convection
as we normally get. Highs will be in the upper 80s/near 90 with lows
in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The deep layer ridge builds westward on Monday with a continued
easterly flow. Unfortunately, that won't dampen the rain chances
very much. A weak upper wave progresses NE to SW Monday afternoon,
increasing rain chances from east to west. The batch of
showers/storms should be able to make it across most of the area
before dissipating with the lack of daytime heating.

A weak tropical like wave or surface low may press northward into
the ridge starting on Tuesday along the FL big bend and move
westward through Thursday. At most, this will give the area an
increased chance of rainfall. (ECMWF tracks the highest precip to
our west while the GFS has it over the local area) With the
continued easterly flow Thursday/Friday, high chances of rain
still exist as weak waves continue to move along south of the
upper ridge. No matter what happens with the said "tropical" wave;
it's going to be a rainy week.

.MARINE...

Southeasterly flow of 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected over the next few days. Both will increase by Sunday
night into Monday as an upper level system impacts the region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day with highest chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

With relatively moist conditions in place, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected over the next few days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Localized heavy rainfall is possible in thunderstorms over the
next 7 days. More widespread moderate to heavy rain is possible
for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame but basin averaged
amounts will only be around 2 inches. Widespread flooding is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  73  91  72  90 /  60  60  50  40  50
Panama City   86  72  88  73  89 /  60  50  60  30  50
Dothan        87  71  89  71  88 /  60  50  50  20  50
Albany        90  73  91  73  90 /  50  40  50  20  50
Valdosta      90  72  91  72  89 /  60  30  50  10  50
Cross City    90  73  92  72  90 /  60  40  50  30  50
Apalachicola  85  75  87  75  87 /  50  60  50  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...LF