Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper high pressure system over the southeast states will
persist through tonight while an inverted upper level trough moves
westward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge of
high pressure extending along the Appalachian Mountains to the
northeast Gulf of Mexico will remain largely in place, but models
are hinting toward a possible weak easterly wave forming late
tonight across northeast gulf. With the approach of the upper
level wave and a sea breeze pushing inland, the ongoing isolated
to scattered afternoon convection will persist throughout the
evening, and then gradually dissipate after midnight mainly across
the inland areas.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The inverted upper level trough will continue to move westward
from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the north central gulf
throughout the day Tuesday. The combination of upper level
impulses associated with the trough moving over the forecast area
on Tuesday, decreasing stability due to strong surface heating and
another sea breeze pushing inland, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will re-develop early in the day and persist
through much of the day, with coverage decreasing slightly across
the eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. Rain
chances are then a bit lower on Wednesday due to increased
subsidence and drier air beneath a region of high pressure that
moves overhead. With plenty of sunshine each afternoon, high
temperatures will range from 90 to 95 inland areas with heat
indices expected to top out between 101 to 106 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As broad troughing settles in over the eastern CONUS it
sandwiches the local area between it and high pressure to our
south. This brings a period of unsettled weather Thursday and
Friday as a west-southwest flow maintains deep layer moisture and
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop each day.
A series of shortwave troughs then act to deepen the broader
eastern CONUS trough on Saturday, causing it to dig southward
towards the Gulf Coast where it remains until Monday. This will
continue the pattern of unsettled weather for the local area
straight through the weekend and into early next week. Expect
temperatures to cool somewhat due to the increased coverage of
clouds and rain, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Majority VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with
light northeast winds during the day. Isolated MVFR conditions
possible beneath scattered thunderstorms. Patchy fog is possible
early Tuesday morning prior to sunrise, but coverage near and
over TAF should be limited.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure across the southeast states will
gradually shift south over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
midweek and then persist into the weekend. Favorable marine
conditions throughout the week with light winds and low seas. A
slight uptick in winds and seas can be expected heading into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface high pressure will persist across the region
with relative humidity values remaining above critical thresholds.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm coverages expected
through midweek, with heat indices again climbing to between 100 to
106 Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical thresholds for the next several days, so no red flag
conditions are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The St Marks river at Newport remains in minor flood stage and is
expected to fall below flood stage during the latter half of this
week. The Apalachicola and Ochlockonee rivers will hover in action
stage for the next several days with slow falls expected after
midweek. Though summertime showers and storms in the afternoon
are anticipated, no additional flooding is forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  93  73  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
Panama City   76  92  75  89  76 /  30  50  10  20  20
Dothan        75  93  73  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  10
Albany        76  93  74  92  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  92  73  93  74 /  20  30  20  30  10
Cross City    73  92  74  91  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  77  90  75  88  77 /  40  40  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...TRC
LONG TERM...TRC
AVIATION...DRJohnson
MARINE...JP
FIRE WEATHER...JP
HYDROLOGY...DRJohnson

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