Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Unusually amplified pattern for late July continues to support
rounds of severe weather across the forecast area. Convection
continues to develop along and just west of the Suwannee River,
generally becoming severe after moving across the river. To the
west, severe convection has formed along the nose of a 500mb speed
max, where deep layer shear is maximized. Developing in a strongly
unstable atmosphere (SBCAPE of 4500j/kg from 18Z KTAE sounding) with
unidirectional shear, these cells are showing splitting
characteristics with strong left and right moving members. This
cluster is expected to continue developing southeastward with time
this afternoon, bringing the threat for damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes through SE Alabama and into the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend.

This activity will continue offshore and into the southeastern Big
Bend this evening before exiting the region overnight.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The incredibly anomalous (-4 standard deviation) upper-low will
slide over the Tri-State region on Monday. As it does so, the best
large-scale forcing and deep layer shear will be southwest and
east of us. Expect scattered seabreeze development to remain in
north Florida, though boundaries from storms developing east of
us, and boundaries put off from seabreeze storms could result in
a scattering of storms region-wide tomorrow. On Tuesday, the
frontal boundary associated with the filling upper-low may drift
back inland and westward as it begins to weaken. This, combined
with the seabreeze will be the focus for scattered storms. Again,
severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Starting Wednesday, we'll transition back to a more typical
summertime patter across the region, with the seabreeze being the
main forcing mechanism for afternoon storms. Highs and lows will
run about normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail have the potential to
impact area terminals this afternoon, especially KDHN, KECP,and
KTLH. Activity should diminish from west to east after dark, with
VFR conditions expected to prevail overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Advisory conditions will continue into tonight before subsiding to
Cautionary conditions on Monday, and below headline levels by
Monday night. A return to typically low winds and seas is expected
by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

As storms become more scattered in nature beginning tomorrow, the
threat for flooding will decrease significantly.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  90  72  89  72 /  50  50  20  60  30
Panama City   78  89  76  87  77 /  50  40  20  50  30
Dothan        72  88  72  87  73 /  30  40  20  60  30
Albany        72  88  72  88  74 /  30  40  20  70  30
Valdosta      71  89  72  88  72 /  40  50  20  70  30
Cross City    74  90  73  87  73 /  70  50  30  60  50
Apalachicola  78  88  76  87  77 /  60  30  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             1 WNW OZARK             31.46N 85.67W
07/22/2018  E1.00 INCH       DALE               AL   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN OZARK.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW MAYO              30.04N 83.18W
07/22/2018                   LAFAYETTE          FL   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN ACROSS LAFAYETTE COUNTY.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   31.45N 85.65W
07/22/2018                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS DALE
            COUNTY ALONG WITH REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S GANER               31.03N 86.12W
07/22/2018                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 153.

&&

RH