Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Tallahassee, FL

980 
WWUS52 KTAE 220241
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1041 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAC007-087-099-131-201-205-253-220300-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-180722T0300Z/
Decatur GA-Grady GA-Miller GA-Mitchell GA-Baker GA-Early GA-
Seminole GA-
1041 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR DECATUR...NORTHERN GRADY...MILLER...SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN BAKER...EAST CENTRAL EARLY AND NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE
COUNTIES...

At 1041 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles north of
Whigham, or 14 miles west of Pelham, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Bainbridge, Cairo, Whigham, West Bainbridge, Douglasville,
Iron City, Climax, Damascus, Brinson, Hanover, Ausmac, Babcock,
Reynoldsville, Capel, Decatur Co A/P, Harrells Still, Boykin, Peoples
Still and Mimsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Tallahassee.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 8446 3118 8426 3101 8412 3097 8412
      3092 8408 3088 8408 3087 8407 3085 8408
      3080 8482 3141 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 314DEG 32KT 3108 8440 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

42-DVD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.UPDATE...

A cluster of strong to severe storms are currently marching south
through our northern forecast area this evening. This cluster
should remain active for at least the next couple hours with
increased low level shear and slightly warmer temperatures
facilitating the continued activity for at least the next few
hours. A corresponding Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended
south to around the Florida/Alabama and Florida/Georgia border
through 1 AM EDT. Grids have been updated to reflect current
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [745 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Most of the area has cleared out from the severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and severe weather is not anticipated across the majority
of the region through the evening. The only possible exception could
be in extreme northern portions of the forecast area and north of
Dothan/Albany. There is still enough instability in the atmosphere
in these locations and a little bit better forcing aloft for a few
thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours. Severe weather
is not anticipated overnight but we could a few isolated
thunderstorms develop overnight as depicted by the multiple hi-res
models. Confidence is fairly low in this scenario and the output is
questionable considering how far off they were on the development of
the convection this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An anomalous upper low (by nearly 4 standard deviation), will
remain in place across the southeastern CONUS, moving atop north
Florida on Monday. The greatest forcing for ascent, and surface
based forcing (a frontal boundary), locally, will exist on
Sunday. Associated with the upper low, abnormally strong deep
layer shear will combine with summertime instability to yield a
higher than normal threat for severe weather. The Storm Prediction
Center has kept our much of our region in a Slight Risk for
Sunday afternoon. The main hazard will be widespread damaging
winds, though the threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. With the upper low meandering over the region on Monday, the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms forced from aloft
will be possible, though the severe threat should be low to none.
See rainfall forecast information in the hydrology discussion
below.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The anomalous upper low will gradually fill through mid-week, with
a more typical summertime pattern returning by the end of the week
into the weekend. Expect higher than normal PoPs through Thursday,
with more typical rain chances to end the week. Highs will start
around 90 degrees on Tuesday, gradually increasing into the lower
90s by the end of the week.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

A strong MCS is moving in from the north and could produce gusty
winds and localized IFR conditions at ABY/VLD later this evening,
but uncertainty is high as this moves southeast. Aside from that,
patchy fog is possible overnight at our inland terminals , but
confidence is low so did not mention in the TAFs. VFR conditions
will prevail but another round of thunderstorms will bring
MVFR/IFR conditions at times to area terminals on Sunday.

.MARINE...

Unseasonably strong WSW winds are forecast to begin overnight and
last through tomorrow night associated with a frontal system.
Additionally, severe thunderstorms will be possible starting again
tomorrow afternoon. Winds should fall below headline levels by
Monday, with seas a little slower to subside.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions will not occur over the next several days with
moisture expected to remain high across the area.

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread average rain amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible
across north Florida and extreme south Georgia over the next 48
hours. Most of this rain will occur on Sunday, with isolated
higher amounts of 3-6" possible. The threat for flash flooding
remains low due to the fact that storms will likely be
progressive, though nuisance flooding in urban and rural areas
will be possible. While there have been some rises along area
rivers today (especially the most responsive ones), river levels
remain below action stage. Should some of the same areas receive
heavy rain tomorrow, action stage would be possible along some
area rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  90  71  90  72 /  40  60  60  60  40
Panama City   82  89  77  89  77 /  20  50  50  50  40
Dothan        74  90  72  87  72 /  40  60  30  70  30
Albany        75  92  72  87  73 /  60  50  40  60  30
Valdosta      74  90  71  89  72 /  50  60  60  60  30
Cross City    78  88  73  89  73 /  30  70  60  40  40
Apalachicola  81  88  77  88  76 /  30  50  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...Humphreys
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS CITY              29.64N 83.13W
07/21/2018                   DIXIE              FL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN
            THROUGHOUT DIXIE COUNTY. REPORTS IN ALL
            CITIES EXCEPT JONESBORO AND HORSESHOE.

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
828 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ120-122-124-220115-
Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Terrell GA-
828 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH...QUITMAN AND TERRELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 828 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles north of Lakepoint Resort State Park
to 6 miles south of Lumpkin. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dawson, Cuthbert, Georgetown, Shellman, Sasser, Bronwood, Parrott,
Wire Bridge, Bonapartes Retreat, Carnegie, Crossroads, Randolph Co
A/p, Clarks Mill, Dawson Municipal A/P, Aycock Mill, Chambliss,
Hatcher, Morris, Martins Crossroads and Benevolence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
southwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3197 8495 3192 8491 3192 8445 3194 8444
      3196 8444 3192 8439 3162 8430 3162 8458
      3164 8458 3162 8459 3164 8465 3162 8466
      3162 8494 3167 8493 3178 8496 3178 8514
      3189 8513 3194 8508 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 327DEG 27KT 3215 8508 3196 8479

21-WD