Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
741 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

Thunderstorms near TLH are moving westward and should clear the
area in the next hour or so. Patchy MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible in the early morning near ECP, TLH, and VLD.
Thunderstorms are expected again Saturday afternoon at ECP, TLH,
and VLD, possibly reaching DHN and ABY toward the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [328 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central U.S. An upper level
low will be over North Florida tonight. At the surface high pressure
is centered over the Great Lakes. In the Southeast a weak pressure
gradient is in place. Deep layer flow is easterly this afternoon and
evening. Sea breeze will be active today with light southeasterly
winds. Thunderstorm coverage should be fairly widespread with POPs
of 50 to 70 percent forecast for all of the Florida Counties and
neighboring counties in Georgia. The Cu field is currently (2 pm
EDT) robust and showers are developing in the Florida Counties.

Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate shortly after sunset.
Convection will be mainly offshore after midnight. Lows will be in
the lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A wetter pattern is still expected across the area heading into
the weekend. For Saturday, the combination of a weak upper low, a
weak frontal boundary approaching from the northeast, and
increasing moisture is still expected to allow for a higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Forecast
soundings from the 12z NAM and GFS still depict fairly high
downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) around 1000 j/kg and Wet Microburst
Severity Index (WMSI) values around 80, so a few stronger storms
could briefly pulse up on Saturday afternoon. High temperatures
are expected to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue into Monday and
Tuesday with deep moisture in place and a weak frontal boundary in
the area. High pressure is expected to build in again late in the
week. The highest PoPs are expected to be during the beginning of
the week at around 50-60% with PoPs returning to the 30-40% range
by the end of the week. Expect highs in the lower 90s with lows
in the mid 70s.

.MARINE...

Winds will generally remain around 10 knots or less for the next
several days with seas of 1 to 2 feet. However, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend with locally
higher winds and seas near storms.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dispersions will remain below 20 through most of the day Saturday
and Sunday, increasing in the late afternoon hours. Otherwise, no
hazardous fire weather conditions are forecast for the next several
days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend. A few of
these storms could result in localized minor flooding such as
ponding of water on roadways, however widespread flooding is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  90  71  90  73 /  40  70  30  50  30
Panama City   75  87  74  88  75 /  40  50  40  40  20
Dothan        73  90  72  88  72 /  30  70  40  60  30
Albany        74  91  73  89  74 /  40  70  60  60  40
Valdosta      71  91  71  90  72 /  40  70  50  60  40
Cross City    72  89  72  91  73 /  40  60  30  40  20
Apalachicola  75  86  75  88  75 /  30  50  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
520 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ019-GAZ159-062145-
Madison FL-Brooks GA-
520 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue Springs, or 8 miles east of Madison, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Cherry Lake, Nankin, Hamburg, Hanson and Pinetta.

LAT...LON 3044 8355 3070 8356 3069 8342 3067 8342
      3068 8340 3066 8337 3064 8336 3064 8332
      3062 8327 3059 8326 3055 8326 3052 8324
      3047 8324 3046 8322 3043 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 094DEG 12KT 3050 8328

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
600 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ018-019-GAZ159-160-062230-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-
600 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHERN BROOKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Quitman, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quitman, Valdosta, Dixie, Cherry Lake, Hamburg, Pinetta, Kinderlou,
Lovett, Nankin, Empress, Brooks Co A/p, Blue Springs, Hanson and
Ashville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 8334 3053 8334 3053 8369 3086 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 094DEG 12KT 3067 8345

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

FLZ018-019-GAZ159-062315-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-Brooks GA-
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 627 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Quitman, moving west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dills, Lovett, Grooverville, Ashville and Empress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 8354 3054 8378 3066 8378 3066 8374
      3073 8374 3073 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 099DEG 9KT 3065 8361

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

GAZ144>146-070030-
Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Mitchell GA-
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
NORTHEASTERN BAKER AND NORTHWESTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

At 805 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Doerun, or 9 miles northeast of Camilla, moving west at
20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Camilla, Baconton, Sale City, Flint, Red Store Crossroads,
Cotton, Laney, Lester, Freeman, Mitchell Co A/P, Poplar Arbor Church,
Hartsfield, Greenough and Hinsonton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 8400 3134 8400 3133 8394 3113 8397
      3120 8444 3144 8436 3144 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 099DEG 16KT 3128 8404

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

GAZ123>126-142>145-070130-
Miller GA-Lee GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Terrell GA-Mitchell GA-
Calhoun GA-Early GA-
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MILLER...WESTERN
DOUGHERTY...CENTRAL MITCHELL...SOUTHERN LEE...BAKER...CALHOUN...EAST
CENTRAL EARLY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 857 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Newton, moving west at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Morgan, Camilla, Albany, Edison, Arlington, Leary, Walker,
Douglasville, Iveys Mill, Lockett Crossing, Holt, Mimsville,
Bellview, Milford, Red Store Crossroads, Crestview, Hoggard Mill,
Ducker and Cordrays Mill.

LAT...LON 3166 8422 3122 8417 3113 8466 3160 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 082DEG 32KT 3143 8437

55-SCHOLL

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