Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
246 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage
across our area this afternoon as a surface trough remains nearly
stationary across our western areas. PW values have increased to 2.1-
2.2" across our area, so ample moisture is present, and the sea
breeze along with outflow boundaries will enhance potential for
showers and thunderstorms along with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg.
This setup will result in widespread coverage of showers and storms
through the early evening, with gusty winds and small hail possible
in the strongest thunderstorms. Localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out in thunderstorms that persist over locations for extended
periods of time, but widespread flooding will not occur. Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease in coverage later in the evening and
overnight inland, but could persist near the Gulf Coast where
highest instability and moisture remain present.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A weak upper low and weak surface low over our area will move
west to a position over the western Florida peninsula by Sunday
afternoon. This will place the Tri-state area in deep moist
southerly flow with forecast PW's remaining around 2.20". Thus,
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected so PoPs are
categorical (70-80%) all zones. On Monday, some drier air moves
into our eastern zones as these features move farther to our west.
Rain chances will be highest generally along and west of the
river where the deepest moisture will be found. PoPs will be
tapered 80% west to 30% east. Highs will be in the mid 80s to
around 90. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

As one upper low to our west moves farther away, another upper low
is forecast to approach the southeast U.S. Tuesday and move across
the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Another westward moving upper
low may reach the northern Bahamas by next Saturday. Rain chances
each day will be near climo for July (50%). Highs will mainly be
in the lower 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage this afternoon; all terminals are likely to see brief
visibility reductions later this afternoon or during the early
evening. IFR/LIFR visibility and gusty winds are possible in
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should dissipate inland around
sunset, but scattered showers and storms could persist near the
coast around ECP and possibly TLH through the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate winds and seas 2 feet or less are
expected at least through the upcoming week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With winds generally 10 mph or less and RH values above critical
thresholds, Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The wet weather continues through the weekend. Most local rivers are
steady or falling at this time. A few rivers are rising. All local
rivers are below action stage. QPF through Monday is 1 to 3 inches.
Higher rain totals locally are possible. Ponding of water on
roadways and flooding of low lying areas is possible with heavier
downpours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  75  90  74 /  60  70  40  50  20
Panama City   76  86  77  86  77 /  60  80  60  80  20
Dothan        74  86  74  87  73 /  40  70  40  70  20
Albany        75  88  75  90  75 /  50  70  30  40  20
Valdosta      74  90  74  92  74 /  40  70  20  30  20
Cross City    75  89  75  90  74 /  50  70  20  30  20
Apalachicola  77  87  78  87  77 /  70  70  50  70  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
154 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

FLZ007-008-301945-
Central Walton FL-North Walton FL-
154 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 154 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Laurel Hill, or 9 miles south of Florala, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eglin Air Force Base, Liberty, Paxton, Gordon, Pond Creek, Oakwood
Hills, Fox Hill, Alpine Heights, Lakewood, Pleasant Ridge, New Home,
Flowersville, New Harmony and Mossy Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3099 8628 3062 8612 3055 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 315DEG 11KT 3087 8638

ADL