River Flood Warning 60, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
832 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

.UPDATE...

The forecast for today is in good shape, and no changes were
necessary this morning. Have a great day!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [626 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A drier, cooler airmass will push into the area today. We'll start
the morning with temperatures in the 40s across most of the area and
then warm up to highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s under mostly sunny
skies.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

Dry weather has officially returned to the area! However, many area
rivers will linger in minor or moderate flood for the next few days.
The main upper trough that was associated with the cold front that
moved through yesterday will still be making its way east with the
local area along its base. This will continue to filter in strong
cold advection and a cooler northwest flow. Surface high pressure
will be building in to the region and will keep the area dry and cool
through Thursday night. Highs Wed will be in the lower to mid 50s
and a few deg warmer Thursday. Tonight's lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s but drop below freezing for all areas outside the
immediate coast Wed night. We'll see a few deg warmer Thursday
night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

An upper trough digs into southern CA on Friday with a surface low
forming over Texas with a front extending eastward. This will start to
overspread clouds west to east with temps rising in response to a
deepening mid level ridge. Guidance is in slightly better agreement
tonight on precip timing and looks like it will hold off until
Saturday morning. It looks to mostly stay to the western and northern
areas as a warm front moves north with widespread rain with the cold
front Saturday night. The upper low looks to linger over the
southeast through Monday with clouds and light rain sticking around
until then as well.

Highs Fri through Sun will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This
has already changed since yesterday and will depend on where the
surface low ultimately tracks this weekend. Mon/Tue could be cooler
with highs in the lower 50s. Lows will warm to the 40s for the
weekend and back in the 30s for the new work week.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Around 14Z,
northern winds will increase to around 10 knots with gusts to
14-18 knots near ECP, DHN, TLH and ABY. After sunset, wind speeds
will lower.

.MARINE...

Winds will generally be elevated through the weekend with winds
around 15 knots and could be slightly higher at times. Seas today
may occasionally reach 6 feet but not frequent enough to warrant a
Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas may reach criteria toward the
weekend as another cold front approaches. This will be the next
chance for rain over the waters.

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

No rainfall is expected until Friday night into Saturday.
However, many area rivers remain in moderate or minor flooding and
a few more may rise into minor over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  36  53  32  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  40  53  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  34  50  31  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        58  35  51  31  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  36  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  38  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  39  54  36  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...LN
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...LN