Rip Current Statement 14, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail at least through the afternoon and
early evening with cigs gradually lowering to around 5000 ft AGL.
Later this evening and overnight cigs will lower to IFR levels
with areas of rain sweeping across the terminals from west to
east ahead of a cold front. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to
15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [304 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Moisture will continue to increase at all levels as an upper level
trough and associated surface cold front approach from the west. By
00Z, the front should be located along or near the Mississippi River
cutting through Louisiana. A few showers may reach our far western
zones this afternoon. Otherwise, rain should hold off for the
remainder of the Tri-state area until later this evening. Highs will
be in the lower to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A weak low will develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and
move across Florida Sunday/Sunday night. This system will bring
widespread rain to the area tonight and Sunday. With the track of
the low trending a little further south recently, overall rainfall
amounts are limited to around 1-1.5 inches. Instability is low
and while a few thunderstorms are possible across the marine area
and even the southeast Big Bend, severe storms are not expected.
Precipitation will begin to diminish from west to east Sunday
night, with a dry forecast for Monday. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 60s. While lows are forecast in the upper 50s Sunday
morning, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s as
rain pushes out of the area.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

High pressure will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday but weaken
for the second half of the week as a front pushes across the
central CONUS. Rain chances will return late in the week.
Freezing temperatures will be possible Wednesday morning with lows
expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.MARINE...

A low that will develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will
bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the marine
area, mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Winds and seas remain
elevated this morning but will decrease into the afternoon. With
these elevated conditions, a Small Craft Advisory remains for the
offshore waters.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

A weak area of low pressure that will move across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico this weekend will bring widespread showers to the area.
This will result in around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain with isolated
higher amounts possible. Based on these amounts, flooding is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  59  68  53  66 /  10  80  90  50  10
Panama City   69  59  66  52  65 /  10  70  80  20   0
Dothan        70  59  66  49  64 /  20  80  90  20   0
Albany        71  58  67  50  65 /  10  80  90  50   0
Valdosta      70  57  67  54  64 /   0  70  80  60  10
Cross City    74  58  70  56  67 /   0  50  80  60  10
Apalachicola  66  59  65  54  64 /  10  70  80  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fieux