Frost Advisory 7, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
700 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.UPDATE...

VFR conditions with unlimited cigs and vsbys through the TAF
cycle. Winds will be light, mainly from the south to southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [229 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A layer of stubborn low level clouds continues to slowly erode as
low level isentropic flow descends while moving south-southeastward.
The remaining strip of low clouds extends roughly from Tallahassee,
FL to Albany, GA and areas under these clouds may have maximum
temperatures in the low 50s this afternoon instead of the mid 50s
advertised in that region. By tonight however, these low clouds will
have eroded and with high pressure in place winds will calm, so
conditions will be primed for radiational cooling. Temperatures will
drop into the low 30s to upper 20s in our inland zones, low-mid 30s
along the immediate coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Surface high pressure will be anchored across the southeast CONUS
Wednesday and slide east Wednesday night with return flow
returning out ahead of the next system. A brief window of sunny
skies is on tap Wednesday with highs around 60 before clouds
return Thursday. Highs will moderate into the low to mid 60s as
southerly flow strengthens somewhat. Frontal system will remain to
the west Thursday with a few showers possible across our western
counties Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, rain and
thunderstorm chances increase significantly from west to east as
the front gets closer.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Strong lift associated with the closed upper low and favorable jet
dynamics will result in widespread moderate to locally heavy rain
and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms overnight Thursday night
into Friday. Instability does not look particularly impressive,
but low level and deep layer shear values are likely to be high.
The heavy rain threat appears to be increasing with each new model
run having increased rainfall amounts, especially across the
eastern half of the area. Widespread 1-2 inches, with possibly
closer to 3 inches over the eastern half of the area with locally
higher amounts, are possible. The front clears Friday but the area
will still be impacted by the upper low into Saturday so clouds
and light precipitation may hang around into Saturday afternoon.
Past Saturday, sensible weather becomes more tranquil with
seasonable temperatures.

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

The last of the MVFR cigs should clear TLH by 19z. All other sites
are currently VFR and VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the end of the TAF cycle.

.MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions expected through Wednesday night. The
next frontal system will affect the coastal waters beginning
Thursday with advisory level winds and seas and potential gale
force gusts Thursday night into Friday. Conditions linger into
Saturday with improving conditions towards Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns this period.

.HYDROLOGY...

The Middle and Lower Suwannee River continue to rise. While the
contribution from the Withlacoochee is nearing its peak, there's
still additional water on the way from the Alapaha and Upper
Suwannee. Even with the additional water is beginning to look less
and less likely that Ellaville and Dowling Park will reach minor
flood. However, further downstream, minor flooding is likely at
Luraville and Branford in the next few days.

The next storm system is expected to affect the region starting
Thursday night and continuing through Friday. While there are some
uncertainties with the overall track and intensity of the system, it
looks as though at least a couple of inches of rain are possible
across the region with some of the heaviest totals up to 4
inches mainly across the eastern half of the region.

Even though the region is considerably wet after recent rains, a
widespread 1-2 inch rainfall event should have limited impact on
area river systems. But a heavier event exceeding 3 inches would
move some of the smaller basin rivers back to at least minor flood
stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   29  61  40  67  58 /   0   0   0  10  70
Panama City   37  61  49  66  59 /   0   0  10  30  90
Dothan        30  58  42  62  54 /   0   0   0  20  90
Albany        30  59  39  63  54 /   0   0   0   0  90
Valdosta      31  60  39  66  56 /   0   0   0  10  50
Cross City    32  62  42  69  59 /   0   0   0  20  50
Apalachicola  38  60  50  65  61 /   0   0  10  10  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey