Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
641 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Poor flying condition are expected through the period with low
ceilings, fog, and convection across the area. In general, IFR-LIFR
conditions are expected this morning, improving to MVFR-IFR this
afternoon then returning to IFR-LIFR this evening and overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [309 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Heavy rainfall will be the main threat today as a series of upper
level disturbances riding along the subtropical jet interact with an
unseasonably moist airmass in place. Precipitable water values are
analyzed as high as 1.80 inches south of Mobile via the 03z SPC
mesoanalysis. To put this into perspective, the record observed
value on a KTAE sounding for the month of February is 1.79 inches.
Both the NAM and GFS indicate PWATs over 1.70" advecting
northeastward into western portions of the tri-state area today.
Heavy rainfall rates of 2-4" per hour have already been estimated by
dual-pol radar with strong convection. The key to any flood threat
will be whether or not convection can train over any one area for
more than an hour or two. Looking at forecast soundings from the NAM
and GFS in BUFKIT, the MBE velocity vectors do favor some potential
to see training convection in the Panama City/Dothan/Albany corridor
today. Our local ensemble of CAM guidance is also showing this
possibility with a 15-30 percent chance of seeing 6 inches of rain
today near and west of an Albany to Panama City line. Therefore, we
have issued a flood watch for today and tonight for the western
portions of the area. There is also a marginal risk of a severe
storm or two, mainly in the form of gusty winds.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A cold front will slowly makes it's way eastward across our CWA
tonight through Monday. Rain chances will remain elevated and some
of the rain may be heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms. The
front is forecast to push south of the local area Monday night and
Tuesday and stall and the upper flow becomes zonal. On Tuesday, a
wedge of high pressure at the surface will build down from the Mid-
Atlantic states bringing a drier airmass into our northern zones.
PoPs Tuesday will be tapered north to south with the highest (50%)
across our Florida zones. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
levels with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Upper ridging will build over the local region providing mostly
dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will
mostly be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will be in the mid 50s to
around 60.

.MARINE...

Light to moderate southerly winds today will become easterly by late
Monday. Winds will be light mostly from the east or southeast at
least through the middle of the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Heavy rainfall is expected across the western portions of the area
today, generally near and west of an Albany to Panama City line. In
general, 2-4 inches of rain is expected, however, some locations
could see up to 6 inches where convection moves repeatedly over the
same locations. This would be enough to cause some flooding issues,
mainly in form of dirt road washouts and flooding in poor drainage
and urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible
to flooding. Therefore, we have issued a flood watch for today and
tonight for the western portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  65  75  64  74 /  60  80  80  50  50
Panama City   69  65  72  63  73 / 100  80  70  40  40
Dothan        71  66  74  62  73 / 100  80  50  40  30
Albany        71  66  75  62  69 / 100  80  60  50  30
Valdosta      78  66  76  64  71 /  50  60  80  50  40
Cross City    79  65  78  65  76 /  20  40  60  50  50
Apalachicola  69  64  71  62  72 /  50  80  80  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Jackson-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

GA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
559 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TORNADO          5 NNW HULAW             30.84N 85.75W
02/11/2018                   HOLMES             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH DAMAGE TO A
            COUPLE OF HOMES. SPECIFIC DETAILS NOT YET
            AVAILABLE. TDS OBSERVED ON RADAR. REPORT
            RELAYED FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY 911.

&&

DVD