Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 65

May 2, 201815 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Kansas; 37 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 2, 2018, 5:27 PM CDT for 15 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Kansas; 37 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 2, 2018, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2018, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
80 kt
All 59 counties

Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
70%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 2, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdams, Taylor43 min
May 2, 5:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Nodaway47 min
May 2, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXPage16 min
May 2, 5:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXPage17 min
May 2, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXRinggold, Taylor, Union45 min
May 2, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Union51 min
May 2, 6:28 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXRinggold17 min
May 2, 6:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Doniphan41 min
May 2, 7:03 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXAtchison, Holt16 min
May 2, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Doniphan48 min
May 2, 7:30 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXAtchison, Nodaway15 min
May 2, 7:47 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXAdams, Ringgold, Taylor, Union6 hr
May 2, 8:02 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXPage13 min
May 2, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXDoniphan41 min
May 2, 8:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXRinggold, Taylor40 min
May 2, 8:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Linn, Miami55 min
May 2, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Decatur, Ringgold, Taylor, Union47 min
May 2, 8:46 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJohnson, Miami29 min
May 2, 9:06 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXMiami24 min
May 2, 9:09 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJohnson, Miami36 min
May 2, 9:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn38 min
May 2, 9:28 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJackson, Lafayette32 min
May 2, 9:44 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXCarroll, Cass, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette, Ray46 min
May 2, 9:49 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXBates, Cass, Henry, Johnson41 min
May 2, 9:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBates, Carroll, Cass, Henry, Johnson, Lafayette and 1 more63 min
May 2, 10:22 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJohnson, Lafayette, Pettis, Saline23 min
May 2, 10:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Chariton, Henry, Johnson, Pettis, Saline66 min
May 2, 10:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXMacon, Randolph28 min
May 2, 11:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan28 min
May 2, 11:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Davis, Monroe, Wapello29 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2018-05-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 633 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2018-05-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 251 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
633 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
906 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
251 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

140 
WWUS20 KWNS 022225
SEL5  
SPC WW 022225
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-030600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 65
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Iowa
  Extreme eastern and northeastern Kansas
  Western and northern Missouri
  Extreme southeastern Nebraska

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
  525 PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat in this watch area mainly is
two-fold:
1.  At first, scattered thunderstorms along a nearly stationary
front from southeastern Nebraska across southern Iowa with hail,
wind and perhaps a tornado;
2.  A well-organized complex of storms moving out of northeastern
Kansas -- offering damaging winds potentially reaching hurricane
force, and the risk of a few embedded tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of
Leavenworth KS to 15 miles northeast of Kirksville MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...WW 63...WW
64...

AVIATION...TORNADOES and A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE and ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE and SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 7:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Cass, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery and 4 more2 hr
May 1, 7:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allamakee, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone and 48 more95 min
May 1, 9:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 29 more67 min
May 2, 1:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more117 min
May 2, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa, Jackson and 10 more9 hr
May 2, 5:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur and 15 more97 min
May 1, 9:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 33 more54 min
May 2, 11:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Chase, Clark, Comanche, Dickinson, Edwards and 15 more2 hr
May 2, 12:43 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase and 51 more9 hr
May 2, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Kiowa, McPherson, Rice, Stafford118 min
May 2, 5:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Barber, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 28 more87 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2018Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.