Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 65
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 2, 2018, 5:27 PM CDT for 15 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Kansas; 37 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2018, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 3, 2018, 1:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 80 kt
All 59 counties
Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 90%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 70%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 5:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Adams, Taylor | 43 min |
| May 2, 5:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Atchison, Nodaway | 47 min |
| May 2, 5:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OAX | Page | 16 min |
| May 2, 5:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OAX | Page | 17 min |
| May 2, 6:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Ringgold, Taylor, Union | 45 min |
| May 2, 6:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Clarke, Union | 51 min |
| May 2, 6:28 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DMX | Ringgold | 17 min |
| May 2, 6:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Atchison, Doniphan | 41 min |
| May 2, 7:03 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Atchison, Holt | 16 min |
| May 2, 7:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Atchison, Doniphan | 48 min |
| May 2, 7:30 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Atchison, Nodaway | 15 min |
| May 2, 7:47 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | DMX | Adams, Ringgold, Taylor, Union | 6 hr |
| May 2, 8:02 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | OAX | Page | 13 min |
| May 2, 8:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Doniphan | 41 min |
| May 2, 8:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Ringgold, Taylor | 40 min |
| May 2, 8:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Johnson, Linn, Miami | 55 min |
| May 2, 8:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Clarke, Decatur, Ringgold, Taylor, Union | 47 min |
| May 2, 8:46 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Johnson, Miami | 29 min |
| May 2, 9:06 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Miami | 24 min |
| May 2, 9:09 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Johnson, Miami | 36 min |
| May 2, 9:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Linn | 38 min |
| May 2, 9:28 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Jackson, Lafayette | 32 min |
| May 2, 9:44 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Carroll, Cass, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette, Ray | 46 min |
| May 2, 9:49 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Bates, Cass, Henry, Johnson | 41 min |
| May 2, 9:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Bates, Carroll, Cass, Henry, Johnson, Lafayette and 1 more | 63 min |
| May 2, 10:22 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis, Saline | 23 min |
| May 2, 10:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Carroll, Chariton, Henry, Johnson, Pettis, Saline | 66 min |
| May 2, 10:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Macon, Randolph | 28 min |
| May 2, 11:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan | 28 min |
| May 2, 11:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DMX | Appanoose, Davis, Monroe, Wapello | 29 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 633 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -105 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 906 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 251 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 228 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 3.1
The text
As transmitted.
140
WWUS20 KWNS 022225
SEL5
SPC WW 022225
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-030600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 65
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
Extreme eastern and northeastern Kansas
Western and northern Missouri
Extreme southeastern Nebraska
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
525 PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat in this watch area mainly is
two-fold:
1. At first, scattered thunderstorms along a nearly stationary
front from southeastern Nebraska across southern Iowa with hail,
wind and perhaps a tornado;
2. A well-organized complex of storms moving out of northeastern
Kansas -- offering damaging winds potentially reaching hurricane
force, and the risk of a few embedded tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of
Leavenworth KS to 15 miles northeast of Kirksville MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...WW 63...WW
64...
AVIATION...TORNADOES and A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE and ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE and SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...EdwardsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 7:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Cass, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 1, 7:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allamakee, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone and 48 more | 95 min |
| May 1, 9:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 29 more | 67 min |
| May 2, 1:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more | 117 min |
| May 2, 3:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa, Jackson and 10 more | 9 hr |
| May 2, 5:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur and 15 more | 97 min |
| May 1, 9:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 33 more | 54 min |
| May 2, 11:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Chase, Clark, Comanche, Dickinson, Edwards and 15 more | 2 hr |
| May 2, 12:43 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase and 51 more | 9 hr |
| May 2, 2:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Edwards, Kiowa, McPherson, Rice, Stafford | 118 min |
| May 2, 5:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Barber, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 28 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2018Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.