Alert archive / Wisconsin / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 405

October 9, 2018Allamakee County, Clayton County, Fayette County, Iowa; 14 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 9, 2018, 5:09 PM CDT for Allamakee County, Clayton County, Fayette County, Iowa; 14 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 9, 2018, 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC)
Expired
Oct 9, 2018, 9:08 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt

Counties Allamakee County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Adams County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
40%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 9, 5:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBWaushara48 min
Oct 9, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBWaushara, Winnebago51 min
Oct 9, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge46 min
Oct 9, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXFond du Lac, Green Lake38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-10-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 70 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-10-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 133 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
70 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
986 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

213 
WWUS20 KWNS 092207
SEL5  
SPC WW 092207
IAZ000-WIZ000-100300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Extreme northeastern Iowa
  Parts of southwestern and central Wisconsin

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Small warm sector supercells should persist for several
hours to the east and south of a slow-moving front.  The storm
environment is sufficient for storms with a couple of tornadoes, and
perhaps isolated strong outflow gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Oshkosh WI
to 30 miles east southeast of Waterloo IA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 8, 7:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Clarke, Dallas, Decatur, Jasper, Lucas and 9 more57 min
Oct 9, 12:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Benton, Buchanan, Clarke, Davis, Decatur and 19 more3 hr
Oct 9, 1:46 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone and 36 more7 hr
Oct 9, 2:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCedar, Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones, Muscatine and 1 more2 hr
Oct 9, 3:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Buchanan, Clarke and 29 more2 hr
Oct 9, 6:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 21 more83 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2018Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.