Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 403
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 9, 2018, 12:17 PM CDT for 15 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 9, 2018, 12:17 PM CDT (17:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 9, 2018, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 55 kt
All 49 counties
Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 40%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 12:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Labette, Montgomery | 32 min |
| Oct 9, 12:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ICT | Labette, Montgomery | 17 min |
| Oct 9, 12:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton | 66 min |
| Oct 9, 1:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Labette | 32 min |
| Oct 9, 3:36 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | Johnson, Logan | 24 min |
| Oct 9, 3:38 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Franklin | 37 min |
| Oct 9, 3:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Franklin, Madison | 32 min |
| Oct 9, 3:59 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | Johnson, Newton | 16 min |
| Oct 9, 4:09 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Madison | 20 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 372 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -44 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 747 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 159 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 112 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.2
The text
As transmitted.
716 WWUS20 KWNS 091716 SEL3 SPC WW 091716 ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-100100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms may intensify across the Ozarks this afternoon. Low-level rotation may be sufficient to yield a couple brief tornadoes along with strong wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles southeast of Fayetteville AR to 75 miles north northwest of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Grams
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 11:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Madison, Washington | 89 min |
| Oct 9, 6:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 26 more | 83 min |
| Oct 9, 9:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery | 2 hr |
| Oct 9, 1:46 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson and 5 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 9, 3:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn and 2 more | 84 min |
| Oct 8, 7:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb and 7 more | 57 min |
| Oct 9, 12:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Clark, Grundy, Knox, Mercer, Putnam and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 9, 8:48 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal and 31 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2018Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.