Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 4, 2018, 6:20 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 4, 2018, 6:20 PM EDT (22:20 UTC)
- Expired
- May 4, 2018, 10:36 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 36 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Columbia County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Pike County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Madison, Oneida, Otsego and 2 more | 63 min |
| May 4, 6:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Bradford, Susquehanna | 56 min |
| May 4, 7:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego | 54 min |
| May 4, 7:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Montgomery, Saratoga, Warren | 48 min |
| May 4, 7:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Susquehanna, Wyoming | 62 min |
| May 4, 7:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Albany, Montgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie | 56 min |
| May 4, 7:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Fulton, Montgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren, Washington | 40 min |
| May 4, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Delaware, Sullivan | 48 min |
| May 4, 8:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Albany, Montgomery, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie and 1 more | 60 min |
| May 4, 8:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Coos, Grafton | 78 min |
| May 4, 8:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer, Schoharie | 56 min |
| May 4, 8:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Rensselaer, Washington | 62 min |
| May 4, 8:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster | 56 min |
| May 4, 8:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Grafton | 66 min |
| May 4, 8:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Berkshire | 44 min |
| May 4, 9:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Cheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Sullivan | 66 min |
| May 4, 9:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Berkshire | 61 min |
| May 4, 9:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Carroll, Coos | 55 min |
| May 4, 9:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BOX | Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester | 55 min |
| May 4, 9:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Carroll, Grafton | 57 min |
| May 4, 10:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GYX | Belknap, Carroll, Merrimack, Strafford | 32 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 812 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 147 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 5:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk and 1 more | 83 min |
| May 4, 2:18 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Merrimack and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 4, 6:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coos, Grafton | 117 min |
| May 4, 7:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belknap, Carroll, Coos, Grafton, Strafford | 3 hr |
| May 4, 1:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe and 1 more | 86 min |
| May 4, 2:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung, Cortland, Erie and 17 more | 97 min |
| May 4, 2:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 23 more | 6 hr |
| May 4, 3:16 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 5 more | 6 hr |
| May 4, 4:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 21 more | 55 min |
| May 4, 1:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Crawford, Erie | 5 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Hampshire, 2018Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.