Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 3, 2018, 8:39 PM MDT for 6 counties in Montana; 36 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 3, 2018, 8:39 PM MDT (02:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 4, 2018, 3:00 AM MDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 42 counties
Dawson County, MT, McCone County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND
The radar
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 20%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 8:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GGW | Daniels, Garfield, McCone, Roosevelt, Valley | 62 min |
| Jul 3, 8:48 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Bowman, Slope | 57 min |
| Jul 3, 9:21 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Hettinger, Slope, Stark | 54 min |
| Jul 3, 9:23 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GGW | Richland, Wibaux | 37 min |
| Jul 3, 9:24 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McKenzie | 66 min |
| Jul 3, 9:55 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Morton, Sioux | 65 min |
| Jul 3, 10:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Dunn, McKenzie | 48 min |
| Jul 3, 10:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, Morton | 55 min |
| Jul 3, 10:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, McLean, Oliver | 62 min |
| Jul 3, 10:45 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | BIS | Burleigh, Morton | 2 hr |
| Jul 3, 10:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Sioux | 56 min |
| Jul 3, 11:16 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, Kidder, Sheridan, Wells | 59 min |
| Jul 3, 11:46 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Emmons, Logan | 44 min |
| Jul 4, 12:14 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Foster, Kidder, Stutsman, Wells | 61 min |
| Jul 4, 12:24 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McIntosh | 44 min |
| Jul 4, 12:38 AM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | BIS | Emmons | 5 hr |
| Jul 4, 2:20 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Dickey, LaMoure | 33 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1282 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -119 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1250 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 4.6
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 8:13 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Custer, Dawson, Fallon, McCone, Prairie, Richland and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 3, 8:38 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter | 2 hr |
| Jul 3, 11:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Burleigh, Cass, Dunn, Eddy and 29 more | 116 min |
| Jul 4, 12:34 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks and 11 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2018Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.