Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 892
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 26, 2018, 1:53 PM CDT for 9 counties in Illinois; Ballard County, Kentucky; 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 67 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 26, 2018, 1:53 PM CDT (18:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 26, 2018, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 29 counties
Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Union County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 296 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1250 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -121 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1165 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -108 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -79 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
419
ACUS11 KWNS 261854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261853
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-262000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018
Areas affected...Southern Illinois and Southeastern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 261853Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely as strong to severe
storms form this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms have formed in east central Missouri along a
remnant outflow boundary from the morning convection. These storms
will continue to move east with additional storms possible further
east along the slowing outflow boundary. Given MUCAPE of 2000 to
3000 J/kg south of this boundary and effective shear of 40 to 45
knots, supercells and linear bowing segments are likely with
damaging winds and large hail as the primary threat. The upstream
storms in central Missouri will likely move into this same outflow
corridor this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/26/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38209163 38239070 38219006 38208917 38108875 37678852
36998892 36638914 36558976 36609058 36779131 37029169
38209163SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 8:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Clinton, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 19 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 26, 2:19 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Monroe | 116 min |
| Jun 26, 7:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Bond, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 39 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 26, 9:26 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Edwards, Gallatin, Hardin, Massac, Pope, Saline and 2 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 26, 1:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Kane and 5 more | 89 min |
| Jun 26, 2:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 26, 11:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Breckinridge, Butler, Daviess, Edmonson, Grayson, Hancock and 5 more | 67 min |
| Jun 26, 12:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Campbell, Kenton | 87 min |
| Jun 26, 1:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McCreary, Wayne | 62 min |
| Jun 26, 5:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 26, 12:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Benton, Cass, Cedar, Dade and 10 more | 59 min |
| Jun 26, 12:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Carroll, Cass and 31 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 26, 12:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, McDonald, Newton, Stone | 64 min |
| Jun 26, 1:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald and 4 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 26, 2:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Cass and 29 more | 89 min |
| Jun 26, 6:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Ripley | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.