Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 839

June 23, 201810 counties in Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 23, 2018, 1:36 PM MDT for 10 counties in Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 23, 2018, 1:36 PM MDT (19:36 UTC)
Expired: Jun 23, 2018, 3:30 PM MDT
In force: 114 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 26 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Morton County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Cimarron County, OK

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206Jun 23, 2:20 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2043 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

537 
ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231936 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the southern/central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 231936Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms could pose a risk for large hail
and damaging winds into this evening. Watch issuance could be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A few strong/severe storms have developed near the
Palmer Divide eastward into northwest Kansas this afternoon, amidst
an environment characterized by favorable effective shear, but
modest boundary-layer moisture (e.g., upper 40s/lower 50s dew
points). Still, sufficient mixed-layer buoyancy exists for isolated
multicells/splitting supercells, capable of large hail and damaging
winds. If a few cells continue to organize and evolve southeastward
into improved storm-relative flow and higher dew points, an
increasing severe threat would likely evolve, perhaps in the form of
a small convective complex. As such, convective trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37380089 36610234 36490345 36810384 37220401 37960403
            38610412 39390414 39510396 39630343 39660210 39520114
            39030067 38040046 37380089

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 23, 2:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Kit Carson and 4 more	7 hr
Jun 23, 5:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas and 3 more	113 min
Jun 22, 6:12 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 20 more	2 hr
Jun 22, 8:07 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Elk, Harper and 3 more	113 min
Jun 22, 8:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 38 more	6 hr
Jun 22, 10:09 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 44 more	2 hr
Jun 22, 10:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, LeFlore, McCurtain, Mayes, Sequoyah	7 hr
Jun 23, 12:01 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 44 more	59 min
Jun 23, 1:17 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche and 20 more	118 min
Jun 23, 2:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 24 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2018 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2018 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2018 Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.