Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 751
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2018, 12:23 PM MDT for 9 counties in New Mexico; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2018, 12:23 PM MDT (18:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2018, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Union County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Loving County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -191 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1364 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
494
ACUS11 KWNS 161824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161823
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-162100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
Areas affected...Eastern NM...West TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161823Z - 162100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon as
thunderstorms spread eastward. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly increased in coverage this
afternoon across eastern NM, as rich low/mid-level moisture has
spread into the region ahead of the remnants of TC Bud. Poor
midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak deep-layer shear should
generally limit updraft intensity, but diabatic heating ahead of the
line will steepen low-level lapse rates, resulting in the potential
for isolated severe wind gusts (as recently observed in Artesia, NM)
with water-loaded downdrafts through the afternoon as convection
spreads eastward. Due to the marginal nature of threat, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Dean/Grams.. 06/16/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32020440 33440452 35090461 36260448 36700407 36740324
36460293 35000245 32750256 32010281 31800315 31720396
32020440Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.