Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 577

May 30, 2018Steuben County, Indiana; 13 counties in Michigan; 38 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2018, 4:35 PM EDT for Steuben County, Indiana; 13 counties in Michigan; 38 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2018, 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2018, 6:30 PM EDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

All 52 counties

Steuben County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Ross County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1004 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

900 
ACUS11 KWNS 302035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302035 COR
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Western and Central
Ohio...Extreme Northeast Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302035Z - 302230Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few marginally severe wind gusts remain possible for the
next few hours across the region. A WW is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection has developed within a confluent
band along the northeast periphery of Tropical Depression Alberto. A
few reports of tree damage were received along with sub-marginal
wind gusts of up to 35-45 kts measured across southwest Ohio. Ample
surface heating, with resultant 1000 J/kg MLCAPE currently reside
ahead of the aforementioned convective band across portions of
southern Michigan and and western/central Ohio. As such, a few more
instances of gusty winds remain possible until diurnal cooling and
subsequent stabilization set in. 

Given the isolated and marginal extent of the damaging wind threat,
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Cook/Weiss.. 05/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43098605 43138558 43048504 42728435 42218352 41618303
            40828258 40248237 39558239 39058257 38928282 39058322
            39238365 39448405 39818435 40308446 40708446 41048459
            41418495 41738531 43098605

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2018 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2018 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2018 Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.