Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 511

May 24, 2018Chaves County, Eddy County, Lincoln County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2018, 1:43 PM MDT for Chaves County, Eddy County, Lincoln County, New Mexico. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2018, 1:43 PM MDT (19:43 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2018, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lincoln County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2864 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

142 
ACUS11 KWNS 241944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241943 
NMZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241943Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a severe wind gust exists within
the discussion area. Uncertainty about storm persistence and
coverage preclude WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have persisted along the Sacramento
Mountains for the past hour or two. NLDN data have shown a few
strikes of lightning over the past half hour. Should these storms
move off of the higher terrain, they will encounter dewpoints in the
low- to mid-50s contributing to a moderately unstable environment
with 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE. Shear will be quite weak with RAP
analysis showing only 20 kts. Considerable uncertainty remains as to
whether any storms will move off the higher terrain which makes WW
issuance unlikely. However, should storms persist and propagate to
the east, a severe wind gust will be possible. While severe wind
will be the primary threat, steep mid-level lapse rates in place
make a marginal hail threat possible as well.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33500564 34060540 34170479 34010428 33450405 32670393
            32420412 32170445 32180532 32760569 33500564

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 7:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Curry, Lea, Quay, Roosevelt, Union	63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2018 Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.