Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 421
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2018, 8:32 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2018, 8:32 PM CDT (01:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2018, 10:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Finney County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 849 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1870 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 181 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted.
751
ACUS11 KWNS 150133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150132
KSZ000-150300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Areas affected...Western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150132Z - 150300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The long-lived intense thunderstorm cluster across western
KS will continue to pose a localized significant severe risk in the
short term, though the duration of the threat is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, an intense supercell cluster was moving
southeast across west-central KS. The cluster is likely slightly
elevated, given its presentation on visible satellite imagery and
location north of a surface boundary, but moderate instability and
effective shear of 40-50 kt has allowed the cluster to become well
organized. While effective shear will remain favorable downstream,
the thermodynamic environment is expected to become increasingly
hostile, as SB CINH increases. This cluster will likely become
increasingly elevated with time, and with the low-level jet expected
to be focused east of this area, a gradual decreasing trend is
expected later this evening.
Given the very localized nature and expected limited duration of the
threat, no watch issuance is currently anticipated unless additional
upscale growth occurs. However, until a definitive weakening trend
commences, wind-driven large hail capable of significant damage will
continue to be a threat with this system.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/15/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38680109 38680053 38389944 37999942 37759966 37830015
37980072 38130114 38290143 38410159 38680109SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 7:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 19 more | 90 min |
| May 14, 8:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harper | 85 min |
| May 14, 11:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Labette | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.