Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 1, 2018, 8:43 AM CDT for 5 counties in Alabama; 14 counties in Florida; 20 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 1, 2018, 8:43 AM CDT (13:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2018, 10:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 39 counties
Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Worth County, GA
The radar
The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -16 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 739 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 241 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 221 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
346
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011545-
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018
Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia and
southeast Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 011343Z - 011545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will progress eastward across the
Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia today,
with the main severe risk being damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends along the length of
central AL into the western FL Panhandle. The air mass ahead of this
line becomes much drier with eastward extent due to a surface ridge.
The 12Z TLH sounding showed almost no MUCAPE, with poor lapse rates
aloft.
Southerly surface winds will persist throughout the day, although
there will be some veering as the main surface low continues to move
northward away from the region. This will allow marginal
destabilization across mainly the FL Panhandle, where a return to
68-70 F dewpoints will allow for a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE to
develop. Modest flow in the boundary layer along with heating/mixing
may aid wind gust potential with a primarily linear storm mode.
Additional activity ahead of the line is not expected due to the
weak instability and presence of an inversion below 700 mb.
..Jewell/Grams.. 11/01/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30348662 30828637 31538624 31948505 31898413 31588354
30988326 30318347 29928379 30038411 29758452 29528513
29718542 29938561 30198597 30288633 30348662SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 4:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 1, 5:27 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 32 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 1, 7:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Clarke and 22 more | 115 min |
| Nov 1, 9:40 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barbour, Bullock, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Nov 1, 12:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Cherokee, Cleburne, DeKalb, Henry, Houston and 3 more | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.