Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

An area of thunderstorms, currently across West Texas, will move
east and overspread our area between 3 AM and 8 AM. The KABI, KSJT
and KSOA terminals are most likely to be affected by this activity
between 08Z and 11Z. Other scattered shower/thunderstorm development
over southeastern parts of our area will affect KBBD 06Z to 08Z.
Visibility and ceiling reductions are expected in locally heavy
rain accompanying the convective activity overnight into Monday
morning. Additional scattered shower/thunderstorm development is
possible during the day Monday, but with uncertainty in placement,
not including additiona mentions in the TAFs after 15Z. Generally
east winds overnight will veer to the southeast during the day
Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
away from the isolated convection through the remainder of the
evening. Only terminal that may be effect by one of these storms
through sunset will be KBBD (Brady). After midnight, all high
resolution models suggest an area of showers and storms will move
in from the west and cross many of the West Central Texas
terminals before sunrise. Timing and the strength of the storms
remain a question, but have included the best estimate for timing
so far.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

.Possible Severe Thunderstorms...

There is a possibility for severe thunderstorms to develop over,
or move into, West Central Texas tonight. The main hazards are
large hail and damaging winds. Short term models indicate an
upper disturbance will move, from the west, over Texas tonight.
This disturbance has the potential to produce strong to severe
thunderstorms. For Monday, thunderstorms remain in the forecast,
across mainly our northeastern counties. Although the threat of
severe weather isn't as high tomorrow, severe thunderstorms remain
a possibility.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night)

.Possible Big Country Rain...

As the upper disturbance moves farther east, showers and
thunderstorms may move over our Big Country counties. The best
chance for rain will be north of our counties; nevertheless, 20 to
30 PoPs for most of our Big Country counties looks reasonable.
Otherwise, dry conditions will dominate, with lows in the 70s.

(Tuesday through Sunday)

.Hot and Dry...

The remainder of the long term forecast continues to include a
return of very hot afternoon highs. Some days mid to late week may
again need heat advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73 100  73 103 /  20   5   5   5
San Angelo 	 74 103  74 105 /   0   5   0   5
Junction 	 73 102  73 103 /  10  10   0  10
Brownwood 	 72 100  72 101 /  10   5   5   5
Sweetwater 	 73 101  74 104 /  10   5   5   5
Ozona      	 72 100  73 102 /   0  10   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-050500-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late tonight, with
the best chances being in the Concho Valley and Big Country
regions. Main threats are damaging winds and large hail, although
an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the early
to mid morning hours Monday, mainly across the Concho Valley, Big
Country and Heartland regions. Main threats are damaging winds and
large hail, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Hotter temperatures are expected to return Tuesday and continue
through the end of the week. With daily high temperatures forecast
to reach or exceed 103 degrees for some of the area, Heat Advisories
may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across the Concho Valley
and Big Country regions early Monday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
101 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

TXZ064-072-040645-
Tom Green TX-Sterling TX-
101 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STERLING COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM
CDT...

At 1259 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Forsan, or 13 miles northeast of Garden City,
moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. A gust
front is pushing out in front of the storm, so strong winds will
occur well before the rain and small hail.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sterling City around 120 AM CDT.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10126 3208 10082 3152 10084 3163 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 279DEG 44KT 3194 10128

08

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
200 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

TXZ049-054-040800-
Fisher TX-Nolan TX-
200 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOLAN AND FISHER COUNTIES UNTIL
300 AM CDT...

At 159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Rotan to near Silver. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. Strong
winds will occur well before the rain hits.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Maryneal around 215 AM CDT.
  Hamlin and Blackwell around 225 AM CDT.
  Nolan and Hylton around 235 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Hitson, Gannon,
Busby, Capitola, Us-180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line and Us-84
Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 259.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 10016 3208 10066 3276 10066 3295 10064
      3296 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 259DEG 41KT 3295 10046 3214 10067

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
205 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

TXZ155-040745-
San Saba TX-
205 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTY
UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 204 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richland Springs and Algerita. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richland Springs, Algerita, Skeeterville, Sloan, Hall, Locker and
Spring Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 9890 3117 9906 3147 9904 3146 9898
      3144 9896 3146 9895 3144 9893 3144 9887
      3141 9884 3141 9878 3137 9876 3143 9872
      3141 9872 3140 9869 3134 9871 3137 9866
      3135 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0704Z 195DEG 0KT 3127 9886

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
221 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

TXZ065-066-071-072-077-040815-
Irion TX-Schleicher TX-Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Coke TX-
221 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COKE...NORTHWESTERN SCHLEICHER...
TOM GREEN...WESTERN RUNNELS AND EASTERN IRION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Sanco to 6 miles southwest of Arden. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. The
strong winds will occur well ahead of the rain and lightning.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Robert Lee around 225 AM CDT.
  Tankersley and Knickerbocker around 235 AM CDT.
  San Angelo, Twin Buttes Reservoir and Lake Nasworthy around 240 AM
  CDT.
  Christoval and Norton around 250 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3105 10092 3208 10060 3208 10009 3109 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 288DEG 42KT 3203 10053 3137 10084

08