Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms are expected to continue until a few hours after
sunset Tuesday evening. Temporarily reduced ceilings, which could
go down to MVFR conditions, are possible along with wind shifts in
the vicinity of any thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally,
reduced visibility from heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning
are all possible as well. This activity should decrease by around
6Z or so.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across areas west of
Snyder and near Fort Stockton. Models continue to develop and move
this activity towards the east through the remainder of Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Conditions are favorable for large hail and
damaging winds in particular. Additionally, some of the storms may
be rather slow moving. This will lead to the potential for flooding
to develop as well. With regards to tornadoes, the potential seems
rather limited. However, the possibility cannot be completely ruled
out. Then for Wednesday, additional development is expected during
the afternoon hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
concerns at this time. Lastly, and on a side note, temperatures
during this time period are expected to be in the mid 90s during the
afternoon and in the mid 60s for tonight. Please check back for
additional details as they become available.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper level ridge builds into the region Wednesday through
Thursday and then the ridge axis starts to move to the east on
Friday. With the ridge aloft, models are not showing a significant
short-wave (disturbance) moving through the region to help
provide lift for convection Wednesday afternoon and evening. If
convection is able to initiate, there is enough instability
(SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG) and shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 35-40
kt) for strong to severe thunderstorms to occur Wednesday evening.

Instability and moisture will be less on Thursday with the ridge
overhead, so thunderstorms aren't as likely and shouldn't be as
intense that day. Moisture, instability and thunderstorm chances
will be even less on Friday. Expect the warmest conditions of the
week on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

Another trough will be over the Four Corners region this weekend,
with the dry-line moving westward from just west of our forecast
area on Saturday to a position over the Permian Basin and eastern
New Mexico on Sunday. Moisture and instability will be on the
rise, with slight chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening. A weak cold front is expected to move down through the
region early Sunday, and we should see very slight cooling as a
result, with highs on Sunday dropping down into the upper 80s.
Models then show a potent upper level short-wave moving up in the
southwest flow aloft, which could trigger widespread thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the dry-line west
of our area, with activity possibly drifting eastward into our
forecast area Sunday night.

The dry-line remains decently far west of our region Monday and
Tuesday, with chances for thunderstorms continuing on those days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  91  67  95 /  40  20  30  10
San Angelo 	 67  95  68  98 /  40  20  20  10
Junction 	 67  94  68  98 /  30  20  20   5
Brownwood 	 65  91  66  94 /  40  20  30   5
Sweetwater 	 66  91  68  94 /  30  20  30  10
Ozona      	 66  94  68  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
218 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
218 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across West Central Texas. The main threats are large
hail and damaging winds. Localized flooding is also possible as
storms will be slow moving.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across most of
West Central Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening, as storms
become more isolated. The main threats are large hail and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.