Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
639 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered thunderstorms have developed west of our area TAF
locations this evening. Continued development is expected into the
late evening hours. Will continue the TEMPO groups at area TAF
sites for the evening hours, as most of the line of activity moves
eastward during the overnight hours. While this initial line is
expected to move east of most of our sites, additional development
is expected overnight tonight, and TAFs may need to be updated for
another round of thunderstorms across the area. Expect the
activity to finally move east of most sites late in the day
Thursday with improving conditions during the afternoon and
evening tomorrow. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

All eyes on the severe weather chances tonight across West
Central Texas. Dryline making progress through the Permian Basin
this afternoon and should continue east to near a Sweetwater to
Sanderson line late this afternoon, and then begin a retreat back
west this evening. Storms have started to develop north of
Aspermont so far today and southwest of Ozona, but cap has held in
between where convergence along the dryline is weaker. All
indications are that as a shortwave rotates into the area from the
southwest and brings cooler temperatures aloft, cap will weaken
and storms will take off very quickly. Plenty of instability but
flow is mostly unidirectional, so hail and high winds the main
threat.

After the storms develop late this afternoon/evening they should
expand in coverage as they shift east across the Abilene and San
Angelo areas and towards the remainder of West Central Texas late
this evening and into the early morning hours. Have increase rain
chances just a little for tonight and have maintained the mention
of severe storms.

Uncertainty about the overall development for Thursday, with much
depending on just exactly the convection develops tonight and
if/where any surface boundaries end up. Appears the dryline will
surge east faster on Thursday, with storms along and head of the
dryline developing by late morning and into the early afternoon
hours. Hard to tell just how worked over the air mass may be after
the convection tonight, so instability is a question. Best chance
of severe likely from the Heartland east, where low level
moisture will be maximized.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday)

By Thursday evening, the potent upper level low currently
spinning over the Four Corners Region will eject out across the
Central Plains. However, an elongated upper trough will remain
draped across the southwestern CONUS keeping the area in
southwesterly flow aloft. Multiple disturbances moving out of
northern Mexico are forecast to traverse the forecast area
Thursday night and into Friday afternoon. At the surface, a cold
front will drop southward across the region and stall across the
southern half of the area during the day. The combination of
surface convergence along the front and favorable upper level
dynamics will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing Thursday night and continuing into Friday. Multiple
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible especially along
the I-10 corridor where the GFS generates greater than one inch
of QPF. In addition, a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms are possible on Friday generally across the southern
half of the area where modest instability will be present.
Otherwise, daytime highs will only be in the 70's owing to
abundant cloud cover and precipitation.

A few showers and thunderstorms will linger across the
southeastern half of the area Friday night and into Saturday
morning as the elongated upper trough moves over and to the east
of the region. Dry and warmer conditions are then expected going
into next week as upper level ridging builds back over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  87  60  71 /  70  30  20  40
San Angelo 	 69  90  60  72 /  70  30  50  70
Junction 	 69  86  66  73 /  70  60  70  80
Brownwood 	 69  85  62  71 /  70  60  50  70
Sweetwater 	 65  87  58  72 /  60  10  20  30
Ozona      	 67  89  63  74 /  70  30  60  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
244 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
244 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and this evening, becoming more widespread tonight. The
main hazard will be very large hail, perhaps larger than golf ball
size. Damaging winds, deadly lightning, and rainfall heavy enough
to cause some flooding of city streets, low water crossings, and
other low lying areas will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

On Thursday, thunderstorms will be possible, especially across
the area southeast of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. In addition
to the threat for dangerous lightning, a few storms may become
strong and approach severe levels. Large hail and strong, gusty
winds will be the main threats.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night and
Friday into early Saturday, mainly south of Interstate 20. Heavy
rainfall could occur during this time period, leading to a threat
for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be requested for many areas
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             3 NNW AVOCA             32.91N  99.74W
05/02/2018  M1.00 INCH       JONES              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800005

AC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
645 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

TXZ099-030030-
Throckmorton TX-
645 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL THROCKMORTON COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Throckmorton, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elbert around 705 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Us-183 And Us-283, Us-183 Near The Throckmorton-
Baylor County Line and The Intersection Of Us-380 And Highway 222.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3340 9896 3315 9895 3301 9928 3315 9941
      3340 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 233DEG 55KT 3316 9924

Woodward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
653 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STAMFORD                32.94N  99.80W
05/02/2018                   JONES              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800006

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE STAMFORD          32.92N  99.72W
05/02/2018  M75 MPH          JONES              TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800007

SN

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