Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
600 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms that are currently ongoing
across the South Plains may move south into the Big Country this
evening, possibly making it as far south as the Concho Valley and
Heartland late this evening or early Friday morning. For now, have
only included a VCTS group after 03z at KABI, where confidence is
highest. Any thunderstorms that do develop may contain strong
gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Patchy stratus is possible
at the southern 3 sites after 10z, but have kept the TAFs VFR for
now, as confidence remains low that the stratus will affect the
terminals. Winds will remain from the south to southeast at 6 to
12 knots through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Another hot and humid afternoon across West Central Texas.
Temperatures were in the 90s across the area, east of a dryline.
Also, a line of strong thunderstorms was over south central
Oklahoma, and moving to the south.

An upper level disturbance will spark thunderstorms over the
Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with the storms possibly moving
into the Big Country by early evening (according to HRRR and NAM
Nest). Although Hi-Res models indicate the storms will dissipate
just south of I-20. However, storms may continue late tonight
across the Concho Valley and Heartland, so going with slight
chance Pops. A few storms may be severe across mainly the Big
Country. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and
dangerous lightning. Expect very warm conditions on Friday. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Generally quiet and warm weather expected through next week.

The upper level ridge will remain over or near the area through
next Friday, although it will move off to the west and northwest,
weakening over our area at times. The ridge will be centered near
or over our CWA through this weekend, keeping rain chances at less
than 10 percent. However, 850mb temperatures are expected to cool
slightly, as mentioned previously, down into the 25 degree Celsius
range. With that in mind, will continue the mid to upper 90s
forecast going, as opposed to the upper 90s to 105 degrees that
we've had lately. The ridge axis is expected to move off to the
northwest from Monday through the middle of next week, weakening
over our area. However, we will still see temperatures well into
the 90s through the end of next week, and ridging is expected to
remain enough of an influence to continue a dry forecast through
next Friday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 74  96  73  96 /  40   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 73  98  72  96 /  20   5   0   0
Junction 	 71  97  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 73  95  71  95 /  20   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 73  95  73  96 /  40   5   0   0
Ozona      	 73  94  72  93 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
127 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-081830-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
127 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon through the
overnight hours, with the best chances for thunderstorms being in
the Big Country. A few storms may be strong to severe, with large
hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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