Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
520 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
early evening. Included VCTS with some TEMPO TSRA at the
terminals. By the morning hours, low clouds will develop and bring
MVFR ceilings to the southern terminals. VFR conditions will
return all TAF sites by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Thunderstorms were developing between San Angelo and Sweetwater
at 230 PM CDT, where stratus cleared early morning, and heating
was greatest. This was just east of where the short range models
were indicating development. However, the storms are still
expected to move slowly eastward this afternoon and evening in
southwest flow aloft. A few storms may also affect Crockett and
Sutton counties this evening, as storms developing off of higher
terrain in the west, move eastward.

SPC has a slight risk of storms this afternoon and evening in the
Big Country and a marginal risk across the rest of West Central
Texas. With surface based CAPES up to 3500 J/KG, severe
thunderstorms certainly possible, although 0-6 KM Bulk shears are
more in the 25 KT range. Most storms will be ending midnight.

Tuesday's weather picture is similar, with northwest flow aloft
and strong instability in the afternoon and early evening hours.
SPC has a marginal risk across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
However, placement of severe storms will be somewhat uncertain,
Areas that are absent of morning stratus will be at greatest risk.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Tuesday night, we will see another chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially western areas. By
Wednesday afternoon, flow becomes weak northwest aloft. We will
also have strong heating and good low level moisture. With the
flow turning northwest, bulk shear values will again be
sufficient (35 to 45 knots) when combined with areas that can
destabilize to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

Thunderstorm chances diminish Wednesday into Thursday as upper
level ridging builds over the area. However, with temperatures
warming, and the dryline near/along our western border, should any
storms develop, they could again be strong to severe, with the
main hazards again being large hail and damaging winds. Along with
diminishing rain chances, the ridge will also help push
temperatures into the upper 90s in many locations, with triple
digit readings not out of the question Thursday and Friday.

The ridge begins breaking down at the end of the week into
Saturday as troughing develops across the Rocky Mountains. Models
show a cold front that they originally had moving through the area
not stalling near the Red River Valley. Either way, with southwest
flow over the area, the front in the region, and the dryline still
active to our west, we will have a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms for western and northern areas especially
through the weekend. Temperatures should also cool some as the
upper level ridge axis moves east of the area.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  90  65  92 /  60  30  50  20
San Angelo 	 68  94  66  96 /  40  20  50  10
Junction 	 67  92  67  96 /  20  20  30   5
Brownwood 	 68  90  65  92 /  40  40  30  10
Sweetwater 	 67  89  65  92 /  60  30  60  20
Ozona      	 70  90  65  95 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-151930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Aftwill again beernoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Big
Country this afternoon and evening, and a marginal risk across the
rest of West Central Texas. The primary threats are large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, during the afternoon and evening hours. The main
potential for severe thunderstorms will be across the Big Country
and Concho Valley. The main threats are large hail and damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             7 W WATER VALLEY        31.67N 100.84W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800028

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W BRADY               31.13N  99.35W
05/14/2018                   MCCULLOCH          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRAINED STORM SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD ON FM2028
            JUST SOUTH OF BRADY LAKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800029

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
702 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N ROBERT LEE          31.92N 100.48W
05/14/2018                   COKE               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800030

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
714 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/14/2018  E55 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800031

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
719 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW SAN ANGELO        31.42N 100.52W
05/14/2018  E69 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS NEAR WALMART ON
            SHERWOOD WAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800032

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
720 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N  99.33W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON WEST SIDE OF BRADY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800033

HG