Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
321 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Locally Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding Possible through
Today...

Quality gulf moisture, a warm front and lift from an upper level
low, meandering across the South Plains between Lubbock and
Midland, will result in another day of much needed rainfall across
West Central Texas. The Del Rio Sounding was unstable with CAPE
Values around 1600 J/KG this morning. GFS depicts PWAT Values near
2 inches across much of the area today. Texas Tech WRF, which has
been performing well, shows continued precipitation through today
for much of the area. Average rainfall totals will range from 0.75
to 1.5 inches today.

The rain yesterday saturated some soils and today may lead to
some localized flooding and perhaps increased runoff into our
rivers. Training of heavy rain showers or thunderstorms may lead
to flooding of low lying areas and low water crossings.

The precipitation will gradually end from south to north tonight
as the upper level low lifts north into western Kansas. Best Pops
tonight will be across the northeastern Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)

Upper level high pressure building into the area Tuesday through
Friday will result in drier and warmer weather across West
Central Texas.

(Saturday and Sunday)

Upper level high pressure system weakens by Saturday and Sunday,
allowing some weak shortwave energy to impact the area west of
Ozona and the northern Big Country. Have introduced very low
10-15 Pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  72  89  72 /  90  30  10  10
San Angelo 	 80  71  91  72 /  80  20  10   5
Junction 	 84  71  89  72 /  70  20   5   5
Brownwood 	 82  71  90  72 /  80  30  10  10
Sweetwater 	 81  70  90  72 /  70  20  10  10
Ozona      	 81  71  88  71 /  70  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

40/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
542 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-141045-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
542 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of very heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue
this afternoon and tonight across the area. The primary hazards
will continue to be heavy rainfall resulting in localized flash
flooding and a few cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Rain will end tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
458 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-131900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
Including the cities of ROTAN, ROBY, SWEETWATER, STERLING CITY,
ROBERT LEE, BRONTE, BALLINGER, WINTERS, MERTZON, SAN ANGELO,
EDEN, OZONA, ELDORADO, SONORA, HASKELL, THROCKMORTON, WOODSON,
STAMFORD, ANSON, HAMLIN, ALBANY, ABILENE, CLYDE, BAIRD,
CROSS PLAINS, COLEMAN, BROWNWOOD, BRADY, SAN SABA, MENARD,
JUNCTION, and MASON
458 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...Very Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flash Flooding Possible
Today...

Expect an area of rain and isolated thunderstorms, some producing
heavy rain, to continue to develop this morning. The area of rain
will increase in areal coverage and intensity across West Central
Texas through the morning commute and throughout the day.

A few localized areas could get another 2 to 4 inches of rain
that could flood low water crossings. It is important to remember
that very heavy rain can result in flash flooding of low water
crossings and low lying areas.